№ 01Michael Lorenzen takes the ball for the away side carrying a 5.62 xERA across 76.0 innings, paired with a 4.64 FIP that backs up the shaky profile.
№ 02Mike Paredes counters with a 4.61 xERA over 20.0 innings and a 13.0% strikeout rate, leaving plenty of balls in play against a live lineup.
№ 03Both pitching staffs sit in the bottom third of team ERA, the home side 27 of 30 and the away side 30 of 30, a soft backdrop for nine runs.
№ 04Lorenzen throws 50.0% fastballs into a lineup posting a .346 xwOBA against fastballs this season across 1803 plate appearances.
№ 05The home offense is averaging 5.4 runs per game over the last 7 days and has trended up against right-handed pitching across 724 plate appearances.
§ 01The analysis
The headline number on this card is Michael Lorenzen's 5.62 xERA across 76.0 innings, with a 4.64 FIP underneath it that says the underlying work matches the ugly surface. He is pumping fastballs 50.0% of the time into a lineup carrying a .346 xwOBA against fastballs this season across 1803 plate appearances, and the home bats are rolling at 5.4 runs per game over the last 7 days. Mike Paredes is no firewall on the other side: a 4.61 xERA over 20.0 innings, a 4.65 FIP, and a 13.0% strikeout rate that lets contact travel. Both staffs grade out bottom-third in team ERA, home 27 of 30 and away 30 of 30, and the away lineup has been red-hot against right-handed pitching across 611 plate appearances. The late innings offer no real brake either, with Jaden Hill at a 5.06 ERA and Yoendrys Gómez's 4.90 xERA sitting well above his 3.55 ERA. The risk is real: wind is blowing in toward home at 11 mph, the away bats have averaged just 3.6 runs per game over the last 7 days, and Lorenzen's last 5 starts show a 4.35 ERA in the most recent outings versus 14.14 earlier.
§ 02The call
Two starters with xERAs of 5.62 and 4.61, two bullpens leaking late, and a home lineup heating up at 5.4 runs per game is the kind of stack you want behind a total of 9. Target Field's 1.06 run environment and the fastball-heavy approach from Lorenzen into a .346 xwOBA lineup point the same direction. The 11 mph wind blowing in and a quiet 3.6 runs per game from the away side over the last week are the honest pushback, but the pitching math wins out at -122.
Final resultWINOver 9 -122 · -122 Graded Jun 28, 2026