№ 01Joey Cantillo carries a 4.57 ERA across 67.0 innings this season, with a 4.97 FIP underneath that says the run prevention is no mirage.
№ 02Cantillo is trending the wrong way inside his last 5 starts — an 11.00 ERA in the most recent two versus 3.37 in the older two, with a 6.88 FIP across 21.7 innings.
№ 03Command is a real issue, as Cantillo has walked 36 batters in 67.0 innings for a 4.8 BB/9 that puts him in the bottom tier of the league.
№ 04Wind is blowing out to right at 11 mph with a first-pitch temperature of 83°F, both nudging contact a bit further at Progressive Field.
№ 05The counter to weigh — Hao-Yu Lee is hitting .205 on the season with a 0.58 OPS, just 5 hits in 25 at-bats over his last 10 games.
§ 01The analysis
This price leans on the pitcher more than the hitter. Joey Cantillo carries a 4.57 ERA across 67.0 innings, and a 4.97 FIP says the peripherals back it up. He has walked 36 batters in those innings for a 4.8 BB/9, which sits in the bottom tier of the league for command, and the recent five-start window is uglier — an 11.00 ERA over his last two starts compared to 3.37 in the older two, with a 6.88 FIP across 21.7 innings inside that sample. Conditions help too, with wind blowing out to right at 11 mph and 83°F at first pitch. The case against is honest. Hao-Yu Lee is hitting .205 with a 0.58 OPS on the season, only 5-for-25 over his last 10 games, and carries a 0.55 OPS in 45 plate appearances against left-handed pitching while hitting .186 versus lefties. Progressive Field also plays down for right-handed power at a 0.75 home run factor and a 0.94 run environment. But for one total base at -110, the bar is low against a starter this wild and this hittable.
§ 02The call
The play is Hao-Yu Lee over 0.5 Total Bases at -110. The anchor is Cantillo — a 4.57 ERA, a 4.97 FIP, a 4.8 BB/9, and a recent stretch where the ERA has climbed to 11.00 over his last two starts with a 6.88 FIP across 21.7 innings. Wind blowing out to right at 11 mph and an 83°F first pitch only help the contact profile. Lee's season line and platoon split are the real counter, but a single total base is a low bar against this kind of pitcher. Lean over.
Final resultWINHao-Yu Lee OVER 0.5 Total Bases · -110 Graded Jun 13, 2026