№ 01Hao-Yu Lee has 8 hits in 26 at-bats over his last 10 games, a contact stretch that lines up with clearing a single total base.
№ 02Lee carries a .433 xwOBA against right-handed four-seamers across 11 plate appearances this season, giving him a real edge on a common pitch type.
№ 03peter lambert has walked 25 batters across 57.0 innings for a 3.9 BB/9, putting his command in the bottom tier of the league.
№ 04Right-handed batters are hitting .283 against peter lambert across 106 matchups this season, which favors a right-handed bat finding a base.
№ 05peter lambert's composite form score sits at -26 with swinging-strike and K rates below his own baseline, and his last 5 starts carry a 4.65 FIP.
§ 01The analysis
This is a contact-and-command bet. Hao-Yu Lee has 8 hits in 26 at-bats over his last 10 games, and his .433 xwOBA against right-handed four-seamers across 11 plate appearances suggests he can punish the pitch type he is likely to see. On the other side, peter lambert has issued 25 walks in 57.0 innings for a 3.9 BB/9 and has surrendered a .283 average to right-handed batters across 106 matchups. His last 5 starts carry a 4.65 FIP, and his composite form score of -26 reflects swinging-strike and K rates dipping under his own baseline. The counter is real. peter lambert owns a 3.47 ERA on the season, and within his last 5 starts his most recent two sit at 2.31 versus 6.55 in the older two, so he is trending up. Hao-Yu Lee's full-season line of .239 with a 0.64 OPS, plus a 0.66 OPS in 48 plate appearances against righties, is not loud either. Daikin Park plays neutral at a 1.00 run environment with a 1.03 home run factor for right-handed hitters, keeping the venue out of the way.
§ 02The call
The pick is Hao-Yu Lee over 0.5 Total Bases at -110. The recent contact rate of 8 hits in 26 at-bats is the anchor, and the matchup reinforces it. peter lambert's 3.9 BB/9, a .283 mark against right-handed bats over 106 matchups, and a 4.65 FIP across his last 5 starts all point toward traffic on the bases. Lee only needs one single to cash, and his .433 xwOBA against right-handed four-seamers gives him a clear target. The improving recent ERA is noted, but the underlying profile still favors the over.
Final resultLOSSHao-Yu Lee OVER 0.5 Total Bases · -110 Graded Jun 17, 2026