№ 01Brandon Young's 3.38 ERA is being propped up by luck, with a 4.34 xERA underneath signaling a 0.96-run regression is coming.
№ 02Young's last five starts show the slide starting: a 2.08 ERA in the earlier outings has ballooned to 5.40 in his most recent work.
№ 03The away offense has poured in 7.8 runs per game over the last 7 days and brings a 603 plate appearance sample heating up versus right-handed pitching.
№ 04Luinder Avila throws 52.9% fastballs into a lineup posting a .362 xwOBA against fastballs across 1969 plate appearances this year.
№ 05The away bullpen has burned 278 pitches over the last three days, and top leverage arm Lucas Erceg is carrying a 5.00 ERA into late innings.
§ 01The analysis
The number that anchors this over is Brandon Young's 4.34 xERA sitting nearly a full run above his 3.38 ERA, a 0.96-run gap that reads like a bill coming due. His last five starts already show the correction underway, with a 2.08 ERA in the earlier outings giving way to a 5.40 mark in the most recent ones, and he's only striking out 18.4% of the batters he faces. The visiting lineup is the wrong opponent to hide from. They've averaged 7.8 runs per game over the last 7 days, they've built a 603 plate appearance track record heating up against right-handed pitching, and Luinder Avila brings a 52.9% fastball rate into a group carrying a .362 xwOBA against fastballs across 1969 plate appearances. The home side has been swinging it too, at 4.4 runs per game over the last week, and the home catcher is bleeding 0.8 called strikes per 100 taken pitches versus league baseline. Late-inning traffic is on the table as well with an away bullpen that has already thrown 278 pitches in three days and leans on Lucas Erceg and his 5.00 ERA.
§ 02The call
The honest counter is Avila's own trend line, where a 12.79 ERA in his earlier recent starts has cooled to a 5.00 mark in the latest ones, and home-plate umpire Nick Mahrley has been calling strikes on 33.7% of taken pitches, a wider zone than league average. Erceg's 4.23 xERA also hints his late results have been worse than his true ability, and the away side is missing Kyle Isbel and Maikel Garcia. Even weighing that, the pitching regression signals and the bat-on-fastball edge point over the total at -115.
Final resultLOSSOver 10 -115 · -115 Graded Jul 11, 2026