№ 01Jacob Young has posted a 16.7% barrel rate against right-handed four-seamers over the last 30 days across 15 plate appearances.
№ 02Michael Wacha's ERA over his last two starts is 5.68 versus 2.08 in the two before that, a worsening trend inside his recent window.
№ 03If the game reaches the late innings, closer Lucas Erceg carries a 5.81 ERA across 26.3 relief innings.
№ 04Nationals Park sits at a 0.91 home run factor for right-handed hitters this season, which works against the extra-base outcomes needed to clear 1.5.
№ 05Wacha's season ERA is 3.58 across 88.0 innings with a 3.93 FIP and a 19.8% strikeout rate, so the matchup quality matters at +190.
§ 01The analysis
This bet leans on a specific edge rather than overall form. Young is hitting .234 on the season with a 0.68 OPS, and against right-handed pitching he sits at .231 with a 0.69 OPS across 171 plate appearances. The last 10 games show 6 hits in 27 at-bats, so nothing about the broader profile is loud. What stands out is the pitch-type fit. Over the last 30 days, Young has a 16.7% barrel rate against right-handed four-seamers across 15 plate appearances, and he draws Michael Wacha, whose ERA has climbed to 5.68 over his last two starts after sitting at 2.08 in the two before. Wacha's season line is still respectable at a 3.58 ERA over 88.0 innings with a 3.93 FIP, and a late-game appearance from Lucas Erceg and his 5.81 ERA would add another window. The counter is the park - Nationals Park carries a 0.91 home run factor for right-handed hitters, which trims the extra-base ceiling Young needs to reach two total bases.
§ 02The call
Take Jacob Young over 1.5 total bases at +190. The price is doing real work here, and the path to cashing runs through the four-seamer matchup. Young's 16.7% barrel rate against right-handed four-seamers over the last 30 days lines up with a Wacha who has slipped to a 5.68 ERA over his last two starts. The park factor is a real drag on the home run path, but at this number the barrel quality against the pitch he is most likely to see is enough to back the over.
Final resultLOSSJacob Young OVER 1.5 Total Bases · +190 Graded Jun 17, 2026