№ 01Grissom has 12 hits in 40 at-bats over his last 10 games, a stretch of contact that travels into this matchup.
№ 02Eduardo Rodríguez throws 60.7% fastballs, and Grissom carries a .373 xwOBA against fastballs across 79 plate appearances this season.
№ 03Rodríguez's xERA of 4.82 sits well above his 2.55 ERA, and his last 5 starts show a 4.53 FIP across 28.0 innings.
№ 04Within Rodríguez's last 5 starts, his ERA has climbed to 5.00 in the most recent two versus 1.38 in the older two.
№ 05Chase Field carries a 1.06 run environment this season, a small nudge in favor of offensive output for a day game here.
§ 01The analysis
This pick leans on the gap between what Eduardo Rodríguez has shown on the surface and what the underlying numbers say is coming. His 2.55 ERA looks like a wall, but his xERA of 4.82 and a 4.08 FIP point to contact quality that has outrun the results. Over his last 5 starts he is at a 4.53 FIP across 28.0 innings, and the trend inside that window is worsening — a 5.00 ERA in the two most recent outings against 1.38 in the older two. The pitch mix matters here. Rodríguez throws 60.7% fastballs, and Grissom owns a .373 xwOBA against fastballs across 79 plate appearances this season. Grissom is also riding a 12-for-40 stretch over his last 10 games. The counters are real and worth naming. Grissom has just a 0.60 OPS and a .220 average against lefties in 60 plate appearances, and Rodríguez has held right-handed bats to a .200 average across 245 matchups. But Chase Field's 1.06 run environment and the price at +155 give this number room to clear with one extra-base knock or a multi-hit day.
§ 02The call
Take Grissom OVER 1.5 total bases at +155. The strongest reason is the matchup with Rodríguez's primary pitch — 60.7% fastballs into a hitter posting a .373 xwOBA against that pitch — backed by a 4.82 xERA and a worsening trend in his last two starts. Grissom's recent 12-for-40 run says the bat is connecting right now, and Chase Field's 1.06 run environment adds room for a double or a multi-hit afternoon. The platoon split is the honest counter, but the price covers it. Lean to the over.
Final resultLOSSVaughn Grissom OVER 1.5 Total Bases · +155 Graded Jun 17, 2026