№ 01Eury Pérez is running a 4.70 xERA across 72.7 innings, giving Heim a starter whose underlying run prevention grades below league average.
№ 02Pérez has walked 32 hitters in those 72.7 innings for a 4.0 BB/9, bottom-tier command that puts free traffic on the table.
№ 03His FIP sits at 4.52, so the defense-independent peripheral confirms what the xERA already suggests about the profile.
№ 04Pete Fairbanks is behind him with a 6.84 ERA over 25.0 relief innings, a second window if the starter escapes.
№ 05Sutter Health Park is playing to a 1.17 run environment this season, with first pitch scheduled in daylight.
§ 01The analysis
The case starts with the arm on the other side. Eury Pérez has posted a 4.70 xERA over 72.7 innings, and the command has been the leak, 32 walks and a 4.0 BB/9 that lands in the bottom tier of the league. A 4.52 FIP tells the same story once you strip out defense, so the pitcher Heim is stepping in against grades as hittable on the underlying markers. The setting reinforces it, Sutter Health Park is running a 1.17 park factor this year with a daylight first pitch. Should Pérez get through his work, Pete Fairbanks waits with a 6.84 ERA across 25.0 relief innings, another shot at a knock late. Heim carries a season batting line of .234 and a 0.76 OPS, and over the last 30 days he has hit .273 against right-handed four-seamers in 12 plate appearances. The honest risk is the platoon split. Against right-handed pitching this year he is at .178 with a 0.53 OPS in 82 plate appearances, and he is slumping into this one with 7 hits in his last 35 at-bats over 10 games.
§ 02The call
The read leans on the matchup and the venue rather than the batter's recent form. Pérez's 4.70 xERA, 4.0 BB/9 and 4.52 FIP describe a starter giving up contact and free passes, the park is playing to 1.17, and Fairbanks looms with a 6.84 ERA over 25.0 innings if the starter escapes. You are paying -140 while accepting Heim's .178 average and 0.53 OPS in 82 plate appearances versus right-handers, plus the 7 for 35 stretch across his last 10 games, in exchange for the softest pitching environment on the card.
Final resultWINJonah Heim OVER 0.5 Hits · -140 Graded Jul 5, 2026