№ 01Eury Pérez brings a 4.70 xERA across 72.7 innings into a park playing to a 1.17 run environment, with a 13 mph wind blowing out to center at first pitch.
№ 02Gage Jump's last five starts show the arrow bending down, a 2.38 ERA in the earlier outings ballooning to a 4.66 ERA in the more recent ones, backed by a 4.52 FIP.
№ 03The away offense has been red-hot over the last seven days, averaging 7.3 runs per game heading into this matchup.
№ 04Pete Fairbanks anchors the away bullpen with a 6.84 ERA, meaning late-inning traffic has translated into runs rather than clean sheets.
№ 05The counter: Pérez has flipped his last five, going from a 4.76 ERA in the earlier outings to a 1.80 ERA recently, with a 2.50 FIP underneath.
§ 01The analysis
The lead here is the starter on the mound for the visitors. Eury Pérez carries a 4.70 xERA across 72.7 innings and walks into Sutter Health Park, a venue playing to a 1.17 run environment this season, with a 13 mph wind pushing out to center at first pitch. Across the diamond, Gage Jump's recent form is trending the wrong way, a 2.38 ERA in his earlier outings giving way to a 4.66 ERA in his last five, and his 4.52 FIP suggests the drift is real. The away bats have done the rest of the talking, averaging 7.3 runs per game over the last seven days. Even if the starters escape, Pete Fairbanks and his 6.84 ERA loom in the late innings for the away side. The honest risk is the same starter carrying the top line: Pérez has flipped the script over his last five, a 4.76 ERA in the earlier outings sharpening to 1.80 in the recent ones, with a 2.50 FIP and rising swinging-strike and K rates underneath. The away lineup has also cooled against left-handed pitching across 207 plate appearances.
§ 02The call
The park, the wind, and Jump's downward trend all point the same direction, and a 7.3 runs per game clip from the away offense over the last week gives the total a floor even if Pérez continues his recent stretch. Fairbanks and his 6.84 ERA add another crack in the late innings. The risk is Pérez's 1.80 ERA run and 2.50 FIP holding through six, plus a cooler bat trail against lefties over 207 plate appearances. Over 10 at -105 is the play.
Final resultWINOver 10 -105 · -105 Graded Jul 5, 2026