Key points — 5
- № 01Christian Scott takes the ball for the Mets opposite right-hander Tyler Phillips for Miami. Scott has been sharp across his 6 starts this season, posting a 3.20 ERA with peripherals that back it, a 2.90 FIP across 25.3 innings, plus a strong 10.88 K/9 over his recent work.
- № 02Both offenses are scuffling badly. The Mets carry the worst OPS in baseball, ranked 30 at .643, and their 7-day form score sits at -38 with just 1.8 runs per game. Miami isn't much better, with a -48 form score over the same stretch.
- № 03The wind is a genuine run-suppressant tonight. It's blowing in toward home at 14.9 mph, with gusts up to 24.2 mph, in a cool 58.2°F daytime setting. Citi Field already plays as a pitcher's park with a 0.96 run factor, the conditions only deepen that suppression.
- № 04Both bullpens are rested. The Mets rank 29 in lightest league usage, and closer Devin Williams threw 0 pitches yesterday, though his 6.00 season ERA is a real wobble late. Miami's highest-leverage arm, Pete Fairbanks, carries an ugly 7.53 ERA, so neither pen is a lockdown unit.
- № 05The Marlins' lineup grades poorly against tonight's righty, at -42 across 698 plate appearances. The one caveat is Xavier Edwards, who owns an .863 OPS vs righties, and Otto Lopez at .722, but the supporting cast around them is thin.