№ 01A.J. Ewing is hitting .273 on the season across 242 at-bats with a 0.76 OPS, the profile of a hitter capable of stacking bases at plus money.
№ 02Eury Pérez throws 55.0% fastballs and Ewing owns a .353 xwOBA against fastballs across 160 plate appearances, a favorable matchup on the pitch he sees most.
№ 03If the Mets get to the bullpen, closer Pete Fairbanks has bled a 6.75 ERA across 33.3 relief innings, leaving late-game bases on the table.
№ 04Ewing has stayed hot with 11 hits in 41 at-bats over his last 10 games, and carries a 0.75 OPS in 201 plate appearances against righties.
№ 05The counter: Pérez has held left-handers to a .174 average across 224 matchups and has posted a 2.37 FIP over his last 5 starts spanning 31.3 innings.
§ 01The analysis
Ewing's season line does the heavy lifting here. He is hitting .273 across 242 at-bats with a 0.76 OPS, and the matchup lines up on the pitch he sees most. Eury Pérez leans on his fastball 55.0% of the time, and Ewing has run a .353 xwOBA against fastballs across 160 plate appearances this year. That is the pitch mix you want with a plus-money total bases number. If the game drags into the ninth, Pete Fairbanks and his 6.75 ERA across 33.3 relief innings offer another window for extra-base traffic. Ewing has been swinging it lately too, with 11 hits in 41 at-bats over his last 10 games, and he carries a 0.75 OPS in 201 plate appearances against right-handed pitching along with a .274 average against righties. The honest risk is Pérez himself. He has held left-handed hitters to a .174 average across 224 matchups this season and has been sharp lately, running a 2.37 FIP across 31.3 innings over his last 5 starts. Citi Field's 0.96 run environment does not help. His full-season 4.00 xERA and 3.82 FIP suggest a hittable middle ground.
§ 02The call
The read is straightforward. Ewing gets a fastball-heavy starter he can attack, a bullpen door cracked open by Fairbanks and his 6.75 ERA, and his own .273 average and 0.76 OPS backing the profile. The recent form, 11-for-41 over 10 games, keeps the trend line pointed the right way. Pérez has been stingy against lefties at .174 and sharp over his last 5 starts at a 2.37 FIP, and Citi Field's 0.96 run environment tempers the ceiling. At +170 for two bases, the price pays for that risk.
Final resultLOSSA.J. Ewing OVER 1.5 Total Bases · +170 Graded Jul 31, 2026