№ 01Olson is hitting .276 with a 0.90 OPS across 286 at-bats this season, production that lines up well with clearing 1.5 total bases.
№ 02Over his last 10 games, Olson has 13 hits in 41 at-bats, so the bat is moving in the right direction heading into this matchup.
№ 03Jacob Misiorowski throws 72.8% fastballs, and Olson carries a .396 xwOBA against fastballs across 191 plate appearances this season.
№ 04Olson also carries a .600 slugging against right-handed pitchers' sinkers over 23 plate appearances, adding another lane for extra bases.
№ 05Truist Park carries a 1.10 home run factor for left-handed hitters, and first-pitch temperature is 85°F, both nudging the ball further.
§ 01The analysis
This price reflects how tough Misiorowski has been. He carries a 1.34 ERA across 87.0 innings, a 1.44 FIP, and has held left-handed batters to a .096 average across 177 matchups. Over his most recent 5 starts, his FIP sits at 0.68 across 36.0 innings. That is the case against. The case for Olson starts with the bat. He is hitting .276 with a 0.90 OPS on the season and has 13 hits in his last 41 at-bats. Against right-handed pitching specifically, he carries a 0.90 OPS across 181 plate appearances and is hitting .275. The matchup angle matters too. Misiorowski leans on fastballs 72.8% of the time, and Olson posts a .396 xwOBA against fastballs across 191 plate appearances. He also slugs .600 against right-handed sinkers over 23 plate appearances. The venue helps. Truist Park carries a 1.10 home run factor for left-handed hitters, sits at 1050 feet of elevation, and first-pitch temperature is 85°F. One swing clears this line.
§ 02The call
Take Matt Olson over 1.5 total bases at +186. The matchup math is the anchor. Misiorowski lives in the fastball at 72.8%, and Olson's .396 xwOBA against fastballs across 191 plate appearances is exactly the profile that punishes that diet. Add a .600 slug against right-handed sinkers, a 0.90 OPS versus righties on the year, and 13 hits in his last 41 at-bats. Truist Park's 1.10 home run factor for left-handed hitters and the 85°F first-pitch temperature give the ball room to travel. Olson over 1.5 is the side.
Final resultLOSSMatt Olson OVER 1.5 Total Bases · +186 Graded Jun 20, 2026