№ 01Albies is hitting .278 on the season across 281 at-bats with a 0.76 OPS, a solid baseline for clearing 1.5 total bases.
№ 02Jacob Misiorowski throws 72.8% fastballs, and Albies carries a .341 xwOBA against fastballs across 155 plate appearances this season.
№ 03Against right-handed cutters specifically, Albies posts a .491 xwOBA over 12 plate appearances on the year.
№ 04Truist Park sits at 1050 feet of elevation with a first-pitch temperature of 85°F, both of which help carry batted balls.
№ 05The counter is Misiorowski's 1.34 ERA across 87.0 innings and a 0.68 FIP over his most recent 5 starts spanning 36.0 innings.
§ 01The analysis
The case for Albies clearing 1.5 total bases starts with the matchup against Misiorowski's pitch mix. Misiorowski leans on his fastball 72.8% of the time, and Albies has handled fastballs well this year with a .341 xwOBA across 155 plate appearances. Against right-handed cutters, Albies carries a .491 xwOBA over 12 plate appearances, another bucket that fits this profile. The season-long slash supports him too at .278 with a 0.76 OPS over 281 at-bats, and over his last 10 games he has 10 hits in 37 at-bats. Truist Park adds two small tailwinds: 1050 feet of elevation and an 85°F first pitch, both of which help the ball carry, with the park running a 1.05 home run factor and 1.02 run factor this year. The clear pushback is Misiorowski himself. He owns a 1.34 ERA across 87.0 innings, a 1.44 FIP, and a 0.68 FIP over his most recent 5 starts across 36.0 innings, plus a 38.3% strikeout rate. The price at +188 is paying for that respect.
§ 02The call
Take Albies over 1.5 total bases at +188. The fastball-heavy approach from Misiorowski runs directly into the part of Albies's profile that has produced this season, with a .341 xwOBA on fastballs and a .491 xwOBA on right-handed cutters. The Truist Park backdrop at 1050 feet and 85°F nudges batted balls further, and the park's 1.05 home run factor reinforces that. Misiorowski's run prevention is real and the number reflects it, but the matchup-specific data and venue are enough to play this number at plus money.
Final resultLOSSOzzie Albies OVER 1.5 Total Bases · +188 Graded Jun 20, 2026