№ 01Brady Singer's ERA across his two most recent starts is 2.45 versus 8.00 in the two before that, showing he is improving within the window.
№ 02Singer throws 42.6% breaking pitches and the opposing lineup carries just a .281 xwOBA against breaking pitches across 816 plate appearances this season.
№ 03The opposing side is missing Brandon Lockridge on the injured list, thinning the lineup Singer has to work through.
№ 04Brandon Woodruff carries a 3.60 ERA and 3.87 FIP across 30.0 innings, and his most recent 5 starts produced a 3.46 FIP over 25.0 innings.
№ 05The home side is missing Elly De La Cruz, Ke'Bryan Hayes, and Connor Burns, and the offense's 7-day form score sits at -62.
§ 01The analysis
Taking the home side at +134 leans on the fact that Brady Singer is trending the right direction inside his recent window — a 2.45 ERA in his two most recent starts against 8.00 in the two before that, with a season composite form score of 39 driven by swinging-strike and K rates running ahead of his baseline. His 42.6% breaking-pitch usage runs into a lineup posting just a .281 xwOBA versus breaking pitches across 816 plate appearances, and that lineup is also down Brandon Lockridge. The counter is real. Singer's season ERA is 5.32 across 66.0 innings with a 5.92 FIP, his last 5 starts carry a 5.85 FIP over 24.0 innings, and top leverage arm Tony Santillan sits at a 5.10 ERA across 30.0 relief innings. Brandon Woodruff brings a 3.60 ERA and a 3.46 FIP across his most recent 5 starts, and the opposing staff ranks 3 of 30 at 3.45. The home offense is also missing Elly De La Cruz, Ke'Bryan Hayes, and Connor Burns. At plus money in Great American Ball Park's 1.06 run environment, the price still offers cushion.
§ 02The call
The play is the home moneyline at +134. The case rides on Singer's recent direction — a 2.45 ERA over his last two starts and a breaking-pitch mix that matches up well against an opposing lineup sitting at .281 xwOBA versus that pitch class on 816 plate appearances. Woodruff and an opposing staff ranked 3 of 30 at 3.45 make this a real test, and the home injury list is not trivial. But with Singer trending up inside the window that matters and a 1.06 park backdrop, the home dog is the side at this price.
Final resultLOSSCincinnati Reds ML +134 · +134 Graded Jun 23, 2026