№ 01Brady Singer's ERA over his two most recent starts sits at 2.45 versus 8.00 in the two before that, showing real improvement inside the rolling window.
№ 02Singer's composite form score of 39 reflects swinging-strike and K rates running ahead of his own season baseline heading into this outing.
№ 03Working against the under, Jackson Chourio is hitting .301 with a 0.89 OPS across 176 at-bats this season.
№ 04Chourio has also stayed hot in the short sample, collecting 13 hits in 43 at-bats over his last 10 games.
№ 05Great American Ball Park carries a 1.06 run environment this season, which adds offensive lean against any under on a hitter prop.
§ 01The analysis
This under leans on the version of Brady Singer that has shown up in his last two starts rather than the full-season line. Singer's ERA across the last two is 2.45 against 8.00 in the two before, and his composite form score of 39 reflects swinging-strike and K rates pushing ahead of his own baseline. That said, the counter is real. Singer's season ERA sits at 5.32 over 66.0 innings with a 5.92 FIP, and his last five starts carry a 5.85 FIP across 24.0 innings. Chourio is the other side of the problem. He is hitting .301 with a 0.89 OPS on the year, 13 for 43 over his last 10, and posting a 0.88 OPS in 141 plate appearances against right-handed pitching. He also carries a .359 xwOBA against fastballs across 114 plate appearances, and Singer throws 57.4% fastballs. Great American Ball Park's 1.06 run environment does not help the under either. The bet is essentially a wager that Singer's recent two-start trend holds long enough to keep Chourio to one knock or fewer.
§ 02The call
The play is Chourio under 1.5 hits at -176. The cleanest reason to take it is Singer's near-term form — a 2.45 ERA across his last two starts and a form score showing whiff and strikeout rates running ahead of his own baseline. Chourio's season profile and his .359 xwOBA against fastballs are genuine concerns, and the park does not do the under any favors. But at this number you are paying for the in-form version of Singer to limit one bat to a single hit, and that is the side worth taking.
Final resultWINJackson Chourio UNDER 1.5 Hits · -176 Graded Jun 23, 2026