№ 01Brady Singer's ERA over his two most recent starts sits at 2.45 versus 8.00 in the older two outings of the window, showing he is sharpening up.
№ 02Singer's composite form score is 39 with his swinging-strike and strikeout rates both running ahead of his own baseline.
№ 03William Contreras is hitting just .227 against right-handed sinkers over the last 30 days across 25 plate appearances, a cold patch on the pitch type he sees most.
№ 04Contreras carries a 0.74 OPS in 224 plate appearances against right-handed pitching this season, a step down from his overall line.
№ 05The counter is real — Contreras is hitting .299 on the season with 13 hits in 33 at-bats over his last 10 games, and Singer's 5.32 ERA leaves room for damage.
§ 01The analysis
This is a price-heavy under at -193, and the case rests on a recent-form mismatch rather than season-long numbers. Brady Singer's full-year line is ugly — a 5.32 ERA across 66.0 innings with a 5.92 FIP — but his last two starts have produced a 2.45 ERA while his swinging-strike and K rates are trending above his baseline. On the other side, William Contreras has cooled against the exact pitch profile Singer leans on. Singer throws 57.4% fastballs, and while Contreras does carry a .368 xwOBA against fastballs on the season, he is hitting just .227 against right-handed sinkers over the last 30 days. His OPS against righties sits at 0.74 in 224 plate appearances, below his overall .299 average and 0.78 OPS. The counters belong on the table. Contreras has 13 hits in 33 at-bats over his last 10. Great American Ball Park runs at a 1.06 environment, and Tony Santillan's 5.10 bullpen ERA leaves late at-bats available. The under is asking Singer's recent trend to hold for one start against a hitter who has gone quiet versus his primary pitch type.
§ 02The call
The under is the right side because the most current information points the same direction. Singer's last two starts have produced a 2.45 ERA with K and swinging-strike rates above his baseline, and Contreras is hitting just .227 against right-handed sinkers over the last 30 days on 25 plate appearances. The season-long picture argues the other way, and at -193 there is no cushion if Contreras gets to Singer's fastball as the xwOBA suggests he can. Lean under, with the understanding that the price demands the recent trend holds.
Final resultWINWilliam Contreras UNDER 1.5 Hits · -193 Graded Jun 23, 2026