№ 01Rhett Lowder is trending the right way across his last 5 starts, with a 4.09 ERA in the most recent two versus 22.85 in the older two.
№ 02Shane Drohan throws 62.0% fastballs, and the opposing lineup carries a .355 xwOBA against fastballs across 1671 plate appearances this season.
№ 03Closer Trevor Megill's availability is in question after back-to-back appearances, which thins out the late-inning edge if this game stays close.
№ 04Drohan brings a 3.40 ERA over 47.7 innings backed by a 3.10 FIP, so the opposing starter is the toughest fact working against this side.
№ 05Our offense has gone ice-cold over the last 7 days, averaging 3.2 runs per game, and the season-long OPS ranks 26 of 30 at 0.69.
§ 01The analysis
This is a price play on the home side at +117 in a spot where the underlying matchup gives us more to work with than the headline numbers suggest. Rhett Lowder's 4.82 ERA on the season is ugly, but the recent split is moving in the right direction, with a 4.09 mark in his last two starts versus 22.85 in the two before that. The bigger lever is on the other side of the ball. Shane Drohan goes to his fastball 62.0% of the time, and the home lineup posts a .355 xwOBA against fastballs across 1671 plate appearances. Drohan still owns a 3.40 ERA and 3.10 FIP, so we are not pretending this is a bad pitcher, just that the pitch mix is a workable matchup. Late-game leverage tilts our way too, with Trevor Megill questionable after back-to-back outings and Brandon Lockridge on the IL. The counter is real: our offense has gone ice-cold over the last 7 days at 3.2 runs per game, and the opposing pitching staff ranks 1 of 30 at 3.35.
§ 02The call
Take the home side at +117. The number is doing a lot of the work here, and the path to a win is clear enough: Lowder is throwing better than his season ERA, Drohan's fastball-heavy mix runs into a lineup built to handle it, and the away bullpen's top arm may not be available if it comes down to one inning. The offense form and the opposing staff's season-long ranking are legitimate concerns, but at plus money against a hittable pitch profile with a banged-up away roster, this is the right side.
Final resultLOSSCincinnati Reds ML +117 · +117 Graded Jun 25, 2026