№ 01Brandon Sproat carries a 4.62 xERA across 79.0 innings into this one, with a 4.68 FIP that lines up right alongside it.
№ 02Braxton Ashcraft's last 5 starts show the arrow pointing down, a 2.45 ERA in the earlier outings against a 4.63 ERA in the most recent ones.
№ 03The away offense has been trending up over the last 7 days, averaging 4.6 runs per game headed into this matchup.
№ 04Sproat throws 70.9% fastballs and the opposing lineup carries a .353 xwOBA against fastballs this season across 2069 plate appearances.
№ 05The home bullpen has already thrown 222 pitches over the last three days, thinning the depth behind Ashcraft if he exits early.
§ 01The analysis
Sproat walks into PNC Park with a 4.62 xERA across 79.0 innings and a 4.68 FIP that agrees with it, and the home lineup has been trending up against right-handed pitching this season across 782 plate appearances. His pitch mix leans directly into that matchup: 70.9% fastballs into an opposing lineup carrying a .353 xwOBA against fastballs across 2069 plate appearances. The other dugout offers its own path to runs. Ashcraft's last 5 starts have drifted the wrong way, a 2.45 ERA in the earlier outings against a 4.63 ERA in the most recent ones, and the away offense has averaged 4.6 runs per game over the last 7 days while trending up against righties across 664 plate appearances. Pittsburgh's bullpen is also short on rest with 222 pitches over the last three days, and the home battery's catcher is losing 0.6 called strikes per 100 taken pitches versus the league baseline. The counter is real: Ashcraft owns a 3.17 xERA across 108.3 innings, a 2.98 FIP, a 28.1% strikeout rate, and a 49.3% breaking-pitch mix that has held opponents to a .281 xwOBA across 976 plate appearances.
§ 02The call
The route to nine runs runs through Sproat's fastball-heavy profile meeting a home lineup that punishes fastballs to a .353 xwOBA across 2069 plate appearances, and through an Ashcraft workload that has quietly gotten worse across his last 5 starts. Layer in an away bat producing 4.6 runs per game over the last 7 days and a Pittsburgh bullpen already 222 pitches deep over three days, and there's enough juice on both cards. Ashcraft's 3.17 xERA and 2.98 FIP are the honest risk at -109.
Final resultWINOver 8 -109 · -109 Graded Jul 11, 2026