№ 01Bauers is batting .267 with a 0.88 OPS through 292 at-bats, and he's at .272 against right-handed pitching specifically this year.
№ 02Against righties he's running a 0.91 OPS across 251 plate appearances, and the last 10 games show 10 hits in 34 at-bats.
№ 03Skenes throws 62.2% fastballs, and Bauers owns a .386 xwOBA against fastballs over 189 plate appearances this season.
№ 04Skenes has faded over his last 5 starts, with his most recent outings clearly worse than the earlier ones in that stretch.
№ 05First-pitch temperature reads 82°F under daylight at PNC Park, and warmer air carries the ball further.
§ 01The analysis
The season line on Jake Bauers reads .267 with a 0.88 OPS, and the split that matters most today is a 0.91 OPS across 251 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, along with a .272 mark versus righties. The form is right there with the profile, since he's collected 10 hits in 34 at-bats over his last 10 games. The pitch-mix pairing is the anchor of this ticket. Paul Skenes throws 62.2% fastballs, and Bauers carries a .386 xwOBA against fastballs across 189 plate appearances this year. If Skenes reaches for the cutter, Bauers sits on a .419 xwOBA against right-handed cutters, though on a 14 plate appearance sample. Skenes himself has been fading over his last 5 starts, the recent outings clearly worse than the earlier ones. First-pitch temperature of 82°F helps the ball travel in daylight. The counter is Skenes's résumé and the park. He owns a 2.74 xERA over 103.0 innings with a 2.77 FIP, and he's held left-handed hitters to a .195 average across 251 matchups. PNC Park runs a 0.87 home run factor for left-handed hitters. Bauers is 1-for-6 in 7 career plate appearances against him.
§ 02The call
At -145, the pairing that carries this ticket is Bauers's .386 xwOBA against fastballs meeting a Skenes fastball rate of 62.2%, with the hitter's 0.91 OPS versus righties across 251 plate appearances backing it up. The honest risk is a starter with a 2.74 xERA over 103.0 innings and a 2.77 FIP, plus a park playing 0.87 for left-handed home runs. One knock through the fastball-heavy mix cashes the ticket, and the recent form of both pitcher and hitter tilts that way.
Final resultWINJake Bauers OVER 0.5 Total Bases · -145 Graded Jul 12, 2026