№ 01Dustin May's contact quality has outrun his runs allowed, and the peripherals argue he is due to tighten up against a hitter priced at +183 to be held hitless.
№ 02Turang is batting .182 against right-handed sinkers over the last 30 days in 12 plate appearances, a direct hole in a matchup with a heavy sinker arm.
№ 03May's FIP sits at 3.18, the defense-independent peripheral suggesting his actual results have been noisier than the underlying stuff.
№ 04Across his most recent 5 starts May has posted a 2.80 FIP over 23.3 innings, with swinging-strike and K rates running ahead of his own baseline this season.
№ 05The honest counter: Turang carries a 0.93 OPS in 276 plate appearances versus right-handed pitching and a .359 xwOBA against fastballs across 224 plate appearances.
§ 01The analysis
The case for Turang under 0.5 hits starts with the read on Dustin May's underlying form. His contact quality has been sharper than his runs allowed, and the defense-independent numbers say the tightening is coming. May's FIP sits at 3.18 on the season against a 3.85 xERA across 84.3 innings. Over his most recent 5 starts he has run a 2.80 FIP across 23.3 innings, with swinging-strike and strikeout rates both running ahead of his own baseline this season, on top of a 21.7% season K rate. The direct matchup fits: Turang is hitting .182 against right-handed sinkers over the last 30 days in 12 plate appearances. Busch Stadium plays as a 1.00 run environment. The risk is the rest of Turang's profile. He is at .268 on 328 at-bats with a 0.82 OPS.300 against right-handed pitching, and a 0.93 OPS in 276 plate appearances versus righties. He has 14 hits in his last 45 at-bats, a .359 xwOBA on fastballs across 224 plate appearances against a starter throwing 65.6% fastballs, and a .462 average with a 9% whiff rate on right-handed cutters in 14 plate appearances. May's last 5 also show him fading late.
§ 02The call
At +183, the ask is one at-bat where May's peripherals win out against a hitter whose sinker matchup is a hole. The numbers point that way: a 3.18 season FIP, a 2.80 FIP across the last 23.3 innings, and swinging-strike and K rates trending above baseline, against a hitter batting .182 versus right-handed sinkers over 30 days in 12 plate appearances. Turang's .268 average and 0.93 OPS against righties are the price of admission, but the plus-money number is built for exactly that risk.
Final resultLOSSBrice Turang UNDER 0.5 Hits · +183 Graded Jul 7, 2026