№ 01Dustin May has been fading across his last 5 starts, with his most recent outings clearly worse than the earlier ones in that stretch.
№ 02May's season xERA sits at 3.85 across 84.3 innings, with a 21.7% strikeout rate that speaks to a starter who can miss bats when right.
№ 03Hamilton is hitting .234 on the season across 201 at-bats with a 0.64 OPS, and .235 against right-handed pitching in 193 plate appearances.
№ 04The pitch-level splits are the concern: Hamilton is at .083 on righty curveballs over 12 plate appearances and .160 on righty changeups over 25.
№ 05Busch Stadium plays as a neutral 1.00 run environment, and Hamilton's team has taken 4 of the last 5 meetings against this opponent.
§ 01The analysis
The case for Hamilton clearing a hit starts with the man on the mound. Over Dustin May's last 5 starts he has been trending the wrong way, with the most recent outings clearly worse than the earlier ones in that window. That is the crack this ticket is squeezing through. Hamilton isn't a hitter you talk yourself into on his own merits. He is at .234 for the season across 201 at-bats with a 0.64 OPS, and against right-handed pitching he checks in at .235 with a 0.65 OPS across 193 plate appearances. Over his last 10 games he has 5 hits in 23 at-bats. Busch Stadium plays neutral at a 1.00 run environment, and Hamilton's team has won 4 of the last 5 head-to-heads with this opponent, so the spot itself is workable. May's season profile is still respectable, a 3.85 xERA over 84.3 innings with a 21.7% strikeout rate, but the trajectory of the last month is what this over is leaning on.
§ 02The call
The risk is that the recent form line lies. May's peripherals over his last 5 starts read 2.80 FIP across 23.3 innings, his season FIP is 3.18, and his swinging-strike and K rates are running ahead of his own baseline, all suggesting he is due to tighten up. Hamilton's pitch-type splits sharpen that worry: .083 on righty curveballs in 12 plate appearances with a 36% whiff, and .160 on righty changeups in 25 plate appearances with a 30% whiff. If May leans on his secondaries, the bat path here is thin.
Final resultWINDavid Hamilton OVER 0.5 Hits · -115 Graded Jul 7, 2026