№ 01Dustin May's contact quality has been sharper than his runs allowed suggest, pointing to a pitcher whose surface line is due to tighten up against Mitchell.
№ 02May's 3.18 FIP undercuts his ERA, and over his last 5 starts he's run a 2.80 FIP across 23.3 innings.
№ 03May's swinging-strike rate and 21.7% season strikeout rate are trending ahead of his own baseline, backed by a 3.85 xERA over 84.3 innings.
№ 04The risk: Mitchell has 11 hits in 28 at-bats over his last 10 games and owns a .429 average versus right-handed cutters in 21 PA.
№ 05Mitchell carries a .378 xwOBA against fastballs over 166 PA, and May throws 65.6% fastballs, giving the bat a clear pitch to sit on.
§ 01The analysis
The read here starts with May's peripherals. His contact quality has been noticeably sharper than the runs he's allowed, which is the kind of gap that tends to close in the pitcher's favor rather than the hitter's. The FIP backs it up at 3.18, and over his most recent 5 starts he's carved out a 2.80 FIP across 23.3 innings. Layer in a swinging-strike and strikeout rate running ahead of his own season baseline, a 21.7% K rate, and a 3.85 xERA over 84.3 innings, and there's a real case that the version of May showing up isn't the ERA version. Busch Stadium's 1.00 run environment doesn't tilt the matchup either way. The counter is honest. Mitchell has been swinging a hot bat with 11 hits in 28 at-bats over his last 10 games, sits at a .429 average against right-handed cutters in 21 PA, and posts a 0.82 OPS on the season with a 0.86 OPS in 208 PA versus righties. May's 65.6% fastball usage runs directly into Mitchell's .378 xwOBA on fastballs across 166 PA.
§ 02The call
At +131, the price is paying you to side with the pitcher whose underlying work has outpaced his line and whose last five starts have been his sharpest by FIP. Mitchell is hot and has a fastball profile that fits what May throws most, so this isn't a clean fade of the hitter. It's a bet that a starter with a 3.18 FIP and rising whiff rate limits a hitter batting .264 on the season to zero knocks in his looks. Take the number.
Final resultLOSSGarrett Mitchell UNDER 0.5 Hits · +131 Graded Jul 7, 2026