№ 01Dustin May's last five starts show a nasty split, a 2.31 ERA in the earlier outings ballooning to a 37.13 ERA in the most recent ones
№ 02The home offense is averaging 7.4 runs per game over the last 7 days, arriving at this matchup in genuinely hot form
№ 03The away bats are chipping in too at 4.7 runs per game across the last 7 days, keeping the run environment on the boil
№ 04Shane Drohan leans on his fastball 61.0% of the time and the opposing lineup owns a .350 xwOBA against fastballs across 1855 plate appearances
№ 05Home lineup has been red-hot against left-handed pitching this season across 311 plate appearances, a direct fit for the Drohan matchup
§ 01The analysis
The clearest reason to play this over is the shape of Dustin May's recent work. Across his last five starts, the earlier outings carried a tidy 2.31 ERA, but the most recent turns have blown out to a 37.13 ERA. That decline lands against a home lineup averaging 7.4 runs per game over the last 7 days and posting red-hot numbers against left-handed pitching this season across 311 plate appearances. The other side of the ledger is warm too, with the away offense scoring 4.7 runs per game over the last 7 days and heating up against right-handers over 672 plate appearances. Shane Drohan's approach plays into that: he throws 61.0% fastballs, and the lineup he's facing carries a .350 xwOBA against fastballs across 1855 plate appearances. The away bullpen has already logged 238 pitches over the last three days, thinning the safety net behind him. The risk is real. Drohan carries a 3.33 xERA over 57.7 innings and his last five starts have trended the right way, from a 5.56 ERA down to 1.80. May's 3.85 xERA over 84.3 innings suggests his 4.80 ERA is due to tighten.
§ 02The call
The read here is a starter trending the wrong way in Dustin May, a home lineup swinging hot against lefties, and a Drohan fastball diet that runs into a .350 xwOBA problem, with a tired away bullpen behind it. The Busch Stadium 1.00 run environment doesn't fight you either. Drohan's 3.33 xERA and improving five-start line are the honest counter, and May's 3.85 xERA hints at regression his way, but the recent-form and matchup case still points through the number. Over 8 at -107 is the side.
Final resultLOSSOver 8 -107 · -107 Graded Jul 7, 2026