№ 01Jacob Misiorowski carries a 2.09 xERA across 110.0 innings this season, the anchor stat pointing toward a quiet night for opposing bats at Busch Stadium.
№ 02The defense-independent peripheral backs it up, with Misiorowski running a 1.90 FIP and striking out 38.0% of the hitters he faces.
№ 03Left-handed batters are hitting just .090 against Misiorowski across 212 matchups this season, a brutal split for Wetherholt to walk into.
№ 04Over his most recent 5 starts, Misiorowski owns a 2.54 FIP across 32.0 innings, keeping the recent form consistent with the season line.
№ 05The counter: Wetherholt is 12-for-41 over his last 10 games and carries a .379 xwOBA against fastballs, which Misiorowski throws 76.7% of the time.
§ 01The analysis
The case for fading Wetherholt starts with the man on the mound. Jacob Misiorowski has posted a 2.09 xERA across 110.0 innings this season, and the peripherals reinforce every bit of it: a 1.90 FIP and a 38.0% strikeout rate that turns most lineups into spectators. The lefty split is the sharpest edge here, with left-handed hitters managing a .090 average across 212 matchups against him. The recent form hasn't slipped in aggregate either, as Misiorowski carries a 2.54 FIP across his last 32.0 innings over 5 starts. Wetherholt has been serviceable, hitting .266 on the season across 331 at-bats with a 0.77 OPS, and he's gone 12-for-41 over his last 10 games. The one live path for a hit is the pitch mix. Misiorowski leans on his fastball 76.7% of the time, and Wetherholt has run a .379 xwOBA against fastballs across 239 plate appearances. Busch Stadium plays neutral at a 1.00 run environment, and Wetherholt's club has lost all 5 of the last 5 meetings with this opponent.
§ 02The call
The number to keep coming back to is that .090 average left-handed hitters have managed against Misiorowski across 212 matchups, layered on top of a 2.09 xERA and a 1.90 FIP that leave very little margin. Wetherholt has swung the bat fine lately at 12-for-41 in his last 10, and the .379 xwOBA against fastballs is a real threat given how heavily Misiorowski leans on the pitch. At +174, though, the profile of the arm on the mound is doing the heavy lifting on the under.
Final resultLOSSJJ Wetherholt UNDER 0.5 Hits · +174 Graded Jul 8, 2026