№ 01The home offense has been trending up over the last 7 days, averaging 6.8 runs per game, the loudest supporting signal for over 8 at Busch Stadium
№ 02The away offense has matched the surge at 4.3 runs per game over the same 7-day stretch
№ 03The home lineup has been trending up against right-handed pitching this season across a 661 plate appearance sample
№ 04Jacob Misiorowski throws 76.7% fastballs and the opposing lineup carries a .350 xwOBA against fastballs across 1876 plate appearances this season
№ 05The counter: Misiorowski owns a 2.09 xERA over 104.0 innings, a 1.75 FIP and a 38.0% strikeout rate
§ 01The analysis
The strongest reason to play over 8 is what the home dugout has been doing lately, averaging 6.8 runs per game over the last 7 days at Busch Stadium. That form is not narrow either. The home lineup has been trending up against right-handed pitching this season across 661 plate appearances, which is the exact hand Jacob Misiorowski throws with. The away bats are contributing to the environment too, putting up 4.3 runs per game over the same 7-day window. The pitch mix adds another layer. Misiorowski leans on his fastball 76.7% of the time, and the lineup he's facing carries a .350 xwOBA against fastballs across 1876 plate appearances this season. Matt Svanson draws the other assignment, and the venue itself plays as a 1.00 run environment, so nothing about the park suppresses the total. The honest risk is Misiorowski's raw profile. Across 104.0 innings he sports a 2.09 xERA, a 1.75 FIP and a 38.0% strikeout rate, numbers that argue those fastballs still miss enough bats to keep a lineup quiet. The away side is also without Brandon Lockridge (D10).
§ 02The call
Take over 8 at -115. The home side's 6.8 runs per game over the last 7 days, the away side's 4.3, and a .350 xwOBA against fastballs versus a starter throwing them 76.7% of the time give this total a clear path in a neutral 1.00 run environment at Busch Stadium. Misiorowski's 2.09 xERA, 1.75 FIP and 38.0% strikeout rate over 104.0 innings are the reason to size sensibly rather than pass, since the recent form on both sides is doing the heavy lifting here.
Final resultLOSSOver 8 -115 · -115 Graded Jul 8, 2026