№ 01Taj Bradley throws 89.6% fastballs, and Perdomo carries a .350 xwOBA against fastballs across 184 plate appearances this season.
№ 02Bradley's ERA has worsened across his last 5 starts, sitting at 7.36 in the most recent two versus 5.00 in the older two.
№ 03Bradley has walked 30 batters across 71.7 innings, a 3.8 BB/9 that ranks in the bottom tier for command.
№ 04Over his most recent 5 starts, Bradley has run a 5.57 FIP across 24.7 innings.
№ 05Perdomo is 2-for-6 in 6 career plate appearances against Bradley, and Chase Field carries a 1.06 run environment this season.
§ 01The analysis
The matchup leans on Bradley's pitch mix running into a hitter who handles his primary offering. Bradley throws 89.6% fastballs, and Perdomo carries a .350 xwOBA against fastballs across 184 plate appearances this season. That is the core of the bet. Bradley's recent form adds to the case — his ERA is up to 7.36 across his most recent two starts after sitting at 5.00 in the older two, and he has run a 5.57 FIP across 24.7 innings in his last 5. Command is a problem too, with 30 walks across 71.7 innings for a 3.8 BB/9. Chase Field carries a 1.06 run environment, and Perdomo is already 2-for-6 in 6 career plate appearances against Bradley. The counter is real. Perdomo carries a .294 slugging against right-handed sinkers over the last 30 days across 21 plate appearances, and Chase Field's 0.87 home run factor caps extra-base upside. But total bases at 1.5 does not require power — it requires a hit plus extra, or two hits, and the fastball matchup gives that path.
§ 02The call
Take Perdomo over 1.5 total bases at +150. The bet rides on a clean pitch-mix mismatch — Bradley living on fastballs at 89.6% usage against a hitter posting a .350 xwOBA on that pitch across 184 plate appearances. Bradley's ERA trend within his last 5 starts is moving the wrong way, his command sits in the bottom tier, and Chase Field's 1.06 run environment supports the offensive side. Perdomo's recent power profile against sinkers is the real counter, but the fastball-heavy diet and the venue tilt the number toward the over.
Final resultLOSSGeraldo Perdomo OVER 1.5 Total Bases · +150 Graded Jun 21, 2026