№ 01Ryan Weathers has been sharpening across his last 5 starts, with his most recent outings visibly cleaner than the earlier ones in that stretch.
№ 02Victor Caratini is hitting just .167 against left-handed four-seamers this season across a 20 plate appearance sample, a direct matchup problem here.
№ 03On the season Caratini owns a 0.67 OPS in 77 plate appearances against left-handed pitching and a .206 average versus lefties.
№ 04The counter: Weathers still carries a 4.64 xERA over 88.3 innings and a 4.62 FIP across 24.3 innings in his last 5 starts.
№ 05Caratini has also punished left-handed cutters at a .667 clip in 13 plate appearances with only a 7% whiff rate, a real live pocket.
§ 01The analysis
The read here starts with the arm. Ryan Weathers has been sharpening over his last 5 starts, with the most recent outings clearly cleaner than the earlier ones in that window, and that trend meets a hitter who has struggled with exactly what Weathers throws most. Victor Caratini is batting .167 against left-handed four-seamers this season across 20 plate appearances, and Weathers leans on the fastball 47.4% of the time. Zoom out and the profile against lefties gets uglier: Caratini owns a 0.67 OPS in 77 plate appearances versus southpaws and a .206 average. His overall line.239 with a 0.71 OPS across 205 at-bats, is nothing to chase either, and the recent form is a flat 10-for-36 across his last 10 games. Yankee Stadium plays to a 1.00 run environment on the season and this one goes off in daylight. The honest risk is Weathers himself, a 4.64 xERA over 88.3 innings, a 4.09 FIP, and a 4.62 FIP across 24.3 innings in his most recent 5 starts, with swinging-strike and K rates below his own baseline.
§ 02The call
Priced at +120, this is a matchup-driven under. Weathers is trending the right way, and the specific pitch he throws most is the one Caratini has done the least with against lefties this year. The obvious way it loses is Weathers pitching to his 4.64 xERA and 4.09 FIP rather than his recent form, or Caratini running into a cutter, the pitch he has hit .667 against from lefties in 13 plate appearances with a 7% whiff rate. Live with the risk, take the price.
Final resultLOSSVictor Caratini UNDER 0.5 Hits · +120 Graded Jul 5, 2026