№ 01Jack Leiter carries a 4.86 ERA across 76.0 innings this season, leaving room for hard contact in this matchup.
№ 02Leiter has walked 33 batters across 76.0 innings for a 3.9 BB/9, putting him in the bottom tier of the league for command.
№ 03Over his most recent 5 starts, Leiter has run a 4.62 FIP across 26.3 innings, with a composite form score of -60 as his swinging-strike and K rates dip below baseline.
№ 04Globe Life Field carries a 1.05 home run factor for right-handed hitters this season, giving Keaschall a small park boost at +950.
№ 05The clear counter is profile: Keaschall has just 2 home runs in 244 at-bats and a 0.64 OPS in 187 plate appearances against right-handed pitching.
§ 01The analysis
This is a long-shot HR swing at +950, and the angle is the arm on the mound, not the bat. Jack Leiter is sitting on a 4.86 ERA across 76.0 innings with a 4.38 FIP, walking 33 hitters for a 3.9 BB/9 that grades in the bottom tier of the league for command. His most recent 5 starts have produced a 4.62 FIP across 26.3 innings, and his composite form score of -60 reflects swinging-strike and K rates that have slipped below his own baseline. Globe Life Field plays at a 1.05 home run factor for right-handed hitters, which adds a modest tailwind. The counter is real and worth naming. Keaschall has only 2 home runs in 244 at-bats, a 0.64 OPS in 187 plate appearances versus righties, and a 0.0% barrel rate against right-handed four-seamers over the last 30 days across 15 plate appearances. He has been making contact lately with 8 hits in 32 at-bats over his last 10 games, but the power profile is thin.
§ 02The call
At +950, you are paying for one swing to clear the wall, not a full profile bet. Leiter gives you the opening — a 4.86 ERA, a 3.9 BB/9, a 4.62 FIP over his last 5 starts, and a form score sliding below his own baseline. Pair that with a 1.05 home run factor at Globe Life Field for right-handed hitters and Keaschall's recent contact run of 8 hits in 32 at-bats, and there is enough here to take the price on Keaschall over 0.5 home runs.
Final resultLOSSLuke Keaschall OVER 0.5 HR · +950 Graded Jun 18, 2026