№ 01Blake Dunn is hitting .265 on the season across 113 at-bats with a 0.69 OPS, giving him a workable baseline at the plate.
№ 02Opposing starter Kodai Senga carries a 9.00 ERA across 20.0 innings, and his FIP of 6.00 backs up the rough surface line.
№ 03Senga is trending the wrong way, with a 13.50 ERA in his two most recent starts versus 3.09 in the older two of his last five.
№ 04Great American Ball Park plays to a 1.21 home run factor for right-handed hitters and a 1.06 run environment this season.
№ 05Senga's 5.9 BB/9 from 13 walks across 20.0 innings points to command issues that put extra-base contact in play.
§ 01The analysis
Dunn gets a matchup that lines up well for clearing 1.5 total bases. He is hitting .265 with a 0.69 OPS over 113 at-bats on the year and .272 against right-handed pitching, which is the side Senga throws from. Senga has been hit hard, with a 9.00 ERA and 6.00 FIP across 20.0 innings, and the trend inside his last five starts is worse — 13.50 ERA in the most recent two versus 3.09 in the older two. Add a 5.9 BB/9, and free baserunners plus mistake pitches are both on the table. Great American Ball Park amplifies that with a 1.21 home run factor for right-handed bats and a 1.06 run environment. If the game gets to the back end, Devin Williams sits on a 5.01 ERA across 23.3 relief innings. The counter is that Senga's 4.76 xERA suggests his ERA may be running ahead of contact quality, and Dunn has a 0.0% barrel rate against righty sinkers over the last 30 days in 18 plate appearances.
§ 02The call
Take Dunn over 1.5 total bases at +155. The path is straightforward — a right-handed hitter batting .272 against righties, facing a starter with a 9.00 ERA, 6.00 FIP, and a trend pointing the wrong way, in a park that boosts both runs and right-handed home runs. The command issues from Senga and a tired bullpen behind him add chances later in the game. The xERA gap is a real counter, but the surface results, the park, and the recent decline outweigh it at this number.
Final resultLOSSBlake Dunn OVER 1.5 Total Bases · +155 Graded Jun 17, 2026