№ 01McLain has run a 20.0% barrel rate against right-handed sliders over the last 30 days across 18 plate appearances.
№ 02Nolan McLean throws 63.3% fastballs, and McLain carries a .367 xwOBA against fastballs across 142 plate appearances this season.
№ 03Great American Ball Park carries a 1.21 home run factor for right-handed hitters, with wind blowing out to center at 12 mph at first pitch.
№ 04Over his most recent 5 starts, McLean has posted a 5.27 FIP across 24.0 innings, and his composite form score sits at -54 on the season.
№ 05If the game stays close, opposing closer Devin Williams carries a 5.01 ERA across 23.3 relief innings, leaving a late at-bat in play.
§ 01The analysis
This is a matchup bet more than a form bet. McLain is hitting .205 with a 0.67 OPS on the season and just a 0.63 OPS in 210 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, so the season line is ugly. The reason to take the over anyway is what he does to the specific pitches McLean throws. McLean leans on his fastball 63.3% of the time, and McLain has a .367 xwOBA against fastballs across 142 plate appearances this year. When right-handers do break off a slider, McLain has barreled them at a 20.0% clip over the last 30 days. McLean himself has been leaking, with a 5.27 FIP across his last 24.0 innings and a -54 form score. The venue helps too — Great American Ball Park carries a 1.21 home run factor for righties and a 1.06 run environment, with wind blowing out to center at 12 mph. McLean has trended better in his most recent two outings, which is the cleanest counter here, but the pitch-mix fit and the park push back the other way at a +175 price.
§ 02The call
Take Matt McLain over 1.5 total bases at +175. The season slash is weak, but the bet is built on the matchup — a fastball-heavy starter against a hitter with a .367 xwOBA versus fastballs, plus a 20.0% barrel rate on right-handed sliders over the last 30 days. McLean has been running a 5.27 FIP across his last 24.0 innings, the park plays at a 1.21 home run factor for righties, and the wind is blowing out to center. At plus money, that profile is worth the swing.
Final resultWINMatt McLain OVER 1.5 Total Bases · +175 Graded Jun 17, 2026