№ 01Home lineup has been climbing against right-handed pitching across 705 plate appearances this year, and a righty is on the bump tonight
№ 02Away lineup carries the same rising shape against right-handers across 604 plate appearances, giving both dugouts a trend to lean on
№ 03Devin Williams sits on a 4.68 ERA as the top leverage arm out of the away pen, so late-inning runs have been available
№ 04Wind blowing out to center at 16 mph at first pitch turns American Family Field into a friendlier place for fly balls
№ 05Freddy Peralta's last 5 starts have swung from a 10.80 ERA in the earlier outings to a 3.00 ERA in the most recent, the counter risk
§ 01The analysis
The home lineup has been trending up against right-handed pitching all season across 705 plate appearances, and the visitors send a right-hander in Freddy Peralta. The away side brings a similar shape, a 604-plate-appearance climb against right-handers, so both offenses are pointed the right way for a total. Behind the starter, Devin Williams is carrying a 4.68 ERA as the top leverage arm out of the away bullpen, and late-game runs have been on the menu. The sky is helping too, with wind out to center at 16 mph at first pitch. The honest risk lives on the mound. Jacob Misiorowski owns a 2.07 xERA across 111.0 innings with a 1.87 FIP and a 38.4% strikeout rate that is still trending up. Peralta's 4.66 ERA sits above a sharper 3.82 xERA, a 0.84-run gap, and his last 5 starts have moved from a 10.80 ERA down to a 3.00 ERA. Both offenses have also cooled the past week, the home side at 4.5 runs per game and the away side at 2.5.
§ 02The call
The read leans on lineups that have been climbing against right-handed pitching over meaningful samples, a top leverage arm on the away side sitting at a 4.68 ERA, and 16 mph pushing out to center at first pitch. Cory Blaser's games have averaged 7.4 combined runs this year, right on the number. The counter is real with Misiorowski's 2.07 xERA and 38.4% strikeout rate, plus Peralta trending toward his 3.82 xERA, but the environment and the batter pool tilt the price toward the over.
Final resultWINOver 7.5 -110 · -110 Graded Jul 21, 2026