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Baseball · MLB ·

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies

Author SkegBets editorialFiled Graded
Pick
New York Mets ML +162
Line
+162
Bet type
Game
Status
LOSS
CLV
+48.1%
Key points · 5
  1. № 01Zack Wheeler's 2.01 ERA sits well below his 3.04 xERA and 3.29 FIP, which suggests his run prevention has outrun what his contact and peripherals support.
  2. № 02David Peterson's 5.91 ERA looks worse than his underlying work, with a 4.82 xERA, a 3.62 FIP, and a 3.44 FIP over his most recent 5 starts across 23.7 innings.
  3. № 03Our offense carries a 7-day form score of 46 at 5.2 runs per game, while the opposing lineup sits at a -32 form score and 4.6 runs per game over that window.
  4. № 04Peterson throws 36.4% breaking pitches into a lineup posting a .285 xwOBA against breaking stuff this season across 856 plate appearances, matching his shape to their weakness.
  5. № 05The home side is without Adolis García, Brady Day, and Mark Kolozsvary on the injured list, thinning the lineup behind Wheeler.

§ 01The analysis

This is a price-driven side at +162, and the case starts on the mound. Wheeler's 2.01 ERA across 62.7 innings is the headline, but his 3.04 xERA and 3.29 FIP both point to a pitcher whose results have been better than the contact he is allowing. Peterson is the opposite profile. His 5.91 ERA across 64.0 innings is ugly, yet his season FIP is 3.62, his xERA is 4.82, and over his last 5 starts he has run a 3.44 FIP across 23.7 innings. His 36.4% breaking-ball usage also lines up with a lineup that has managed only a .285 xwOBA against breaking pitches across 856 plate appearances. Form leans our way too, with a 46 form score and 5.2 runs per game against a -32 mark and 4.6 runs per game on the other side, and the home club is down Adolis García, Brady Day, and Mark Kolozsvary. The counters are real. Our offense ranks 29 of 30 in OPS at 0.67, Lindor, Mauricio, and Taylor are out, and Jhoan Duran's 1.82 ERA looms late.

§ 02The call

Take the away side at +162. The number is paying us to bet on the gap between Wheeler's 2.01 ERA and his 3.04 xERA and 3.29 FIP, while Peterson's recent 3.44 FIP across 23.7 innings and his 36.4% breaking-pitch diet into a .285 xwOBA lineup give us a usable starter at a steep discount to his ERA. Layer in the 46 versus -32 form split, the 5.2 to 4.6 run gap, and three names absent from the home lineup, and the underdog price is the right side.

Final resultLOSSNew York Mets ML +162 · +162
Graded Jun 22, 2026

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