Key points — 5
- № 01The pitching matchup tilts hard toward New York. Mets opener Huascar Brazobán carries a 2.25 ERA with a 3.51 FIP and 2.61 xERA, peripherals back the surface line. Padres righty Randy Vásquez owns a 3.31 ERA but a 4.19 FIP and an alarming 6.16 xERA across 65.3 innings, both peripherals say he's been lucky and contact quality argues runs allowed should rise.
- № 02Vásquez's last-5 ERA sits at 3.46 but the trend is worsening, his most recent 2 starts produced a 5.06 ERA after the older 2 starts (0.82 ERA) carried the window. He's allowed 5 home runs over 26 innings in that span with only 14 strikeouts, the swing-and-miss has evaporated.
- № 03The handedness signal points the same way. New York grades at +33 vs tonight's righty across 716 plate appearances, while San Diego sits at -22 vs Brazobán's hand across 656 PA. Soto's 0.995 OPS across 129 PA vs righties is the hammer in this lineup.
- № 04Offense form is lopsided. San Diego's rolling 7-day xwOBA sits at 0.281 with 2.17 runs per game, a -60 form score and last 10 of 2 wins. The Mets, by contrast, post 4.83 runs per game and a +16 form score with 6 wins in their last 10.
- № 05Bullpen edges to New York too. The Mets' pen ranks 2 in lightest usage, Williams, Raley, Weaver and Brazobán each threw 0 pitches yesterday. San Diego's closer Mason Miller is questionable on back-to-back days after 34 pitches over 3 days, a real problem given his 1.01 ERA is the centerpiece of their late-game suppression.