№ 01Ben Rice is slugging .871 against left-handed four-seamers over 36 plate appearances this season, with 64% hard contact on that pitch specifically.
№ 02Shota Imanaga throws 81.0% fastballs, and Rice runs a .403 xwOBA against fastballs across 237 plate appearances this year.
№ 03Rice carries a .269 average and 0.93 OPS overall, with a 0.81 OPS in 156 plate appearances against left-handed pitching.
№ 04Wind is blowing out to left at 11 mph with a first-pitch temperature of 81°F, warmer air that carries the ball further.
№ 05Imanaga's swinging-strike and strikeout rates have both fallen below his own baseline this season, softening the whiff threat behind the fastball diet.
§ 01The analysis
The core of this ticket is what Rice does to left-handed four-seam fastballs. He is slugging .871 on them across 36 plate appearances with 64% hard contact, and Shota Imanaga happens to throw 81.0% fastballs. Rice's broader fastball profile backs it up: a .403 xwOBA on the pitch across 237 plate appearances. The full-season line reads .269 with a 0.93 OPS across 390 at-bats, and against left-handed pitching specifically he sits at a 0.81 OPS in 156 plate appearances and a .254 average. The Wrigley conditions cooperate. Wind is blowing out to left at 11 mph at first pitch, temperature is 81°F, and warmer air carries the ball further. Imanaga's own form gives Rice room too, with the starter's swinging-strike and strikeout rates both drifting below his baseline this season and his overall FIP at 4.31. The risk is real. Rice is 7-for-41 over his last 10 games, and Imanaga has been sharpening, running a 2.89 FIP over 29.0 innings across his last five starts while holding lefties to a .182 average on 132 matchups. Wrigley's 0.94 run environment doesn't help either.
§ 02The call
The matchup lines up the way you want it to at +117: a fastball-heavy left-hander against a hitter who has punished left-handed four-seamers to the tune of a .871 slug and 64% hard contact, with wind out to left at 11 mph and 81°F air. The counter is honest. Rice's 7-for-41 stretch and Imanaga's 2.89 FIP over his last 29.0 innings against a .182 mark versus lefties can bury this in a hurry. The price accounts for that, and the underlying fastball profile is why the ticket exists.
Final resultLOSSBen Rice OVER 1.5 Total Bases · +117 Graded Jul 31, 2026