№ 01Chisholm is hitting .467 against right-handed sinkers this season across 18 plate appearances, whiffing on just 18% of them, a targeted edge in this matchup
№ 02He also handles right-handed sliders at a .265 clip over 42 plate appearances, giving him a second answer against secondary stuff from the right side
№ 03Recent form backs the profile with 9 hits in 39 at-bats over his last 10 games heading into Rate Field
№ 04The counter is the season line: .223 across 358 at-bats with a .74 OPS against righties over 268 plate appearances
№ 05Sean Burke owns a 3.45 xERA over 118.3 innings and a 1.65 FIP across 31.0 innings in his last 5 starts, the clearest risk on the ticket
§ 01The analysis
The lane here is specific. Chisholm is hitting .467 against right-handed sinkers this season over 18 plate appearances, and he whiffs on just 18% of them, so any sinker Sean Burke leaks into the zone is a pitch Chisholm has been squaring up all year. The slider read supports it too, with a .265 mark on right-handed sliders across 42 plate appearances, and the last 10 games show 9 hits in 39 at-bats. The honest case against is the broader profile. Chisholm sits at .223 on the season across 358 at-bats with a .74 OPS against righties over 268 plate appearances, and Burke has been the tougher version of himself lately. His xERA is 3.45 across 118.3 innings, his FIP is 3.22, and over his last 5 starts he has run a 1.65 FIP over 31.0 innings while his swinging-strike and K rates outpace his baseline. He also throws 39.0% breaking pitches, and Chisholm's .251 xwOBA on breaking stuff across 141 plate appearances is the soft spot Burke can attack. Rate Field's 0.98 run environment does not tilt the day either way.
§ 02The call
The bet is a pitch-type bet more than a hitter-form bet. Burke's sinker meets a hitter running .467 on it with an 18% whiff, and the slider profile adds a backup answer at .265. The risk is real, with Burke posting a 3.45 xERA, a 3.22 FIP, and a 1.65 FIP over his last 5 starts across 31.0 innings while holding lefties to .195 on the year. If Burke lives on breaking pitches at 39.0%, the one-hit clearance still fits the recent 9-for-39 form.
Final resultWINJazz Chisholm Jr. OVER 0.5 Hits · -124 Graded Jul 30, 2026