№ 01Will Warren's swinging-strike and strikeout rates have both slipped under his own season baseline, softening the swing-and-miss profile Palacios has to survive.
№ 02Palacios has been steady enough against righties overall, hitting .236 with a 0.66 OPS across 186 plate appearances versus right-handed pitching.
№ 03Recent form checks out too, with 8 hits in 33 at-bats over his last 10 games and a .238 season mark across 185 at-bats.
№ 04The away bullpen has piled up 210 pitches in the last three days, meaning any early Warren exit hands innings to tired arms.
№ 05The honest risk is Palacios batting just .053 with a 33% whiff rate over 20 plate appearances against right-handed curveballs this season.
§ 01The analysis
The reason to be on Palacios here starts with the man on the mound. Will Warren's swinging-strike and strikeout rates have both dipped below his own baseline this season, and while his 24.0% strikeout rate and 4.05 xERA over 89.3 innings still read like a competent big-league arm, the trend line points to more contact than he's used to allowing. Palacios doesn't need a loud night to cash. He's hitting .238 on the season across 185 at-bats with a 0.66 OPS, and the splits against righties mirror the overall line at .236 with the same 0.66 OPS in 186 plate appearances. Form is cooperating as well, with 8 hits in 33 at-bats over his last 10 games. If Warren gets chased early, the away bullpen has already thrown 210 pitches over the last three days, tilting the middle innings toward tired arms. The risk worth naming is the pitch-type matchup. Palacios is hitting just .053 against right-handed curveballs on the year across 20 plate appearances, whiffing on 33% of them. If Warren leans on that pitch and lands it, this gets uncomfortable in a hurry.
§ 02The call
There's a real path to a hit here. Warren's whiff and strikeout numbers have receded from his own baseline, Palacios has been serviceable against righties with a .236 average and 0.66 OPS in 186 plate appearances, and the recent 8-for-33 stretch says he's on the barrel enough to keep clearing 0.5. The counter is the curveball, where his .053 average and 33% whiff rate over 20 plate appearances is ugly. Trusting that Warren's slipping stuff outweighs one bad pitch matchup is the bet at -124.
Final resultWINRichie Palacios OVER 0.5 Hits · -124 Graded Jul 8, 2026