№ 01Spencer Jones is hitting .278 on the season across 36 at-bats with a 0.72 OPS, giving the over a steady baseline of contact.
№ 02Over his last 10 games, Jones has 9 hits in 25 at-bats, so the bat is producing right now.
№ 03Jones carries a 0.82 OPS in 33 plate appearances against right-handed pitching and is hitting .323 versus righties, which lines up with tonight's matchup.
№ 04Trey Yesavage has walked 19 batters across 42.7 innings for a 4.0 BB/9, and his ERA in his two most recent starts is 5.91 against 1.50 in the older two of his last five.
№ 05The counter is Yesavage's 3.16 ERA, 2.98 FIP, and .194 mark against left-handed bats across 98 matchups, so the surface profile is still tough.
§ 01The analysis
Spencer Jones brings a clean recent track record into this spot. He is hitting .278 with a 0.72 OPS over 36 at-bats and has 9 hits in 25 at-bats across his last 10 games. The platoon angle works as well — a 0.82 OPS in 33 plate appearances against right-handed pitching and a .323 average versus righties. Trey Yesavage is the wrinkle. His season ERA sits at 3.16 with a 2.98 FIP, and left-handed bats are hitting just .194 against him across 98 matchups, so the headline numbers argue against the over. Underneath that, the recent trend is moving the other way. His ERA in his two most recent starts is 5.91 versus 1.50 in the older two of his last five, and he has walked 19 batters across 42.7 innings for a 4.0 BB/9 that ranks in the bottom tier of the league for command. Rogers Centre adds a 1.02 home run factor for left-handed hitters and a 1.00 run environment. Only one base is needed to cash, and Jones has been getting one regularly.
§ 02The call
The market is pricing Spencer Jones over 0.5 total bases at -105, which implies 51.2%. The case rides on Jones's recent contact, his numbers versus right-handed pitching, and a Yesavage profile that is trending the wrong way on command and recent ERA, even with strong surface peripherals. One hit or one walk-free extra-base swing clears the bar, and Jones has been clearing that bar consistently. Take Spencer Jones over 0.5 total bases at -105.
Final resultLOSSSpencer Jones OVER 0.5 Total Bases · -105 Graded Jun 13, 2026