№ 01Patrick Corbin carries a 4.55 ERA across 57.3 innings, and his 5.64 xERA suggests his contact-quality results have outrun his peripherals.
№ 02Corbin's recent two starts have produced a 10.13 ERA against 3.60 in the older two within his last 5, so he is trending the wrong way.
№ 03Over his last 5 starts, Corbin has run a 5.10 FIP across 23.0 innings, reinforcing the slide.
№ 04Schuemann has just 2 hits in 10 at-bats over his last 10 games, which is the clearest counter to backing him here.
№ 05Rogers Centre plays at a 1.04 home run factor for right-handed hitters, giving any well-struck ball a fair shot to clear the wall.
§ 01The analysis
This price reflects the gap between Corbin's surface line and what's underneath. His 4.55 ERA across 57.3 innings already looks hittable, and his 5.64 xERA points to contact quality that should have produced worse results. The recent split makes it sharper - his ERA across the most recent two starts is 10.13 versus 3.60 in the older two of his last 5, and a 5.10 FIP across 23.0 innings in that window backs up the slide. Corbin is only striking out 15.7% of batters, so balls are in play. The counter is real: Schuemann has 2 hits in 10 at-bats over his last 10 games, and Louis Varland's 0.96 ERA across 37.7 innings means late-inning at-bats won't come cheap if it gets that far. But Schuemann is still hitting .238 with a 0.85 OPS on the season, and Rogers Centre's 1.04 home run factor for right-handed hitters gives any barrel a chance to turn one swing into two bases at +188.
§ 02The call
Take Schuemann over 1.5 total bases at +188. The path is a struggling Corbin whose 5.64 xERA and 10.13 ERA over his last two starts say the contact has been loud and is getting louder, paired with a right-handed park factor of 1.04 at Rogers Centre that rewards solid contact. The recent 2-for-10 is the reason this number is plus money rather than a favorite. With Corbin's K rate at 15.7%, Schuemann should get pitches to drive, and one extra-base hit cashes the ticket.
Final resultWINMax Schuemann OVER 1.5 Total Bases · +188 Graded Jun 14, 2026