№ 01Wind is blowing out to center at 10 mph at first pitch, nudging the run environment up for any ball Crawford puts in the air.
№ 02Jacob Misiorowski's xERA of 2.25 sits well above his 1.50 ERA, a sign his contact-quality results have outrun his peripherals.
№ 03The counter is real - Misiorowski carries a 1.50 ERA across 78.0 innings and a 1.64 FIP, so this is not a soft matchup.
№ 04Misiorowski throws 72.2% fastballs and Crawford has just a .268 xwOBA against fastballs across 115 plate appearances this season.
№ 05Crawford is hitting .247 against right-handed pitching with a 0.66 OPS across 174 plate appearances, so the bar of one total base is the play, not a multi-hit night.
§ 01The analysis
This is a price-driven over on Justin Crawford needing just one total base. The matchup is no gift. Jacob Misiorowski carries a 1.50 ERA across 78.0 innings, a 1.64 FIP, and has run a 0.84 FIP over his last 5 starts spanning 34.0 innings, while striking out 36.8% of batters and holding left-handed hitters to a .101 average across 159 matchups. Crawford himself is hitting .232 on the season with a 0.62 OPS and has 6 hits in 27 at-bats over his last 10 games. The case for the over leans on two things. Misiorowski's xERA sits at 2.25, well clear of his 1.50 ERA, which flags some regression in his contact-quality outcomes. And the wind is blowing out to center at 10 mph at first pitch, which helps any contact carry at American Family Field. Crawford does not need to square Misiorowski up. He needs one single, one double, one bloop that finds grass. At -110, the math thinks that bar is too low.
§ 02The call
The market is pricing Crawford over 0.5 total bases at -110, implying 52.4%. The pitching matchup is the toughest part of the ticket and the recent form is uninspiring, but the bet only asks for one base, the xERA gap points to some regression for Misiorowski, and the wind is helping. When the threshold is this low and the price is this close to even, the edge math is doing the talking. Play Justin Crawford over 0.5 total bases.
Final resultLOSSJustin Crawford OVER 0.5 Total Bases · -110 Graded Jun 13, 2026