№ 01Foster Griffin brings a 3.32 ERA across 84.0 innings into this start, giving the under a stable front-line arm at home.
№ 02Tim Mayza counters with a 2.97 ERA over 33.3 innings, a 3.31 FIP, and a 37.5% strikeout rate that limits contact.
№ 03Away bullpen's top leverage arm Jhoan Duran has worked to a 1.75 ERA, locking down late-game leverage on his side.
№ 04Griffin's 4.35 xERA sits well above his 3.32 ERA, and the home bullpen has thrown 253 pitches over the last three days with closer Gus Varland unavailable.
№ 05Away offense has a 7-day form score of 38 and is averaging 7.3 runs per game, and first-pitch temperature of 87°F helps the ball carry.
§ 01The analysis
The starting pitching is the anchor here. Foster Griffin has carried a 3.32 ERA across 84.0 innings, and Tim Mayza opposes him with a 2.97 ERA over 33.3 innings, a 3.31 FIP, and a 37.5% strikeout rate that should keep the away lineup off the bases. Both catchers help the cause - the home backstop steals 0.7 called strikes per 100 taken pitches over baseline, the away catcher 0.6 - and Nationals Park plays at a 1.02 run environment. Late-inning leverage tilts toward the away side too, with Jhoan Duran at a 1.75 ERA. There are real counters. Griffin's 4.35 xERA suggests his run prevention has outrun his peripherals, the home bullpen has thrown 253 pitches over the last three days, and closer Gus Varland is unavailable while carrying a 5.16 ERA himself. The away offense has averaged 7.3 runs per game over the last week, and at 87°F the ball will carry. The opposing lineup also posts a .362 xwOBA against fastballs, and Mayza throws 67.0% fastballs. Enough run-prevention edges remain to take the under at -102.
§ 02The call
Take the under 9.5 at -102. Two starters posting ERAs of 3.32 and 2.97, a strikeout arm in Mayza backed by a 3.31 FIP, and Duran waiting in the late innings is the kind of pitching matchup that suppresses totals at a park playing to a 1.02 run environment. The home bullpen workload and Varland's absence are real concerns, and the heat helps the ball travel, but the front-line arms and framing edges on both sides outweigh the back-end risk. Under 9.5 is the side.
Final resultWINUnder 9.5 -102 · -102 Graded Jun 23, 2026