№ 01Cade Cavalli's last five starts trend the wrong way, a 2.45 ERA in the earlier outings has given way to a 5.87 ERA in the most recent ones.
№ 02Cristopher Sánchez carries a 1.80 ERA but a louder 2.96 xERA, a 1.16-run gap suggesting his run prevention is due to regress.
№ 03Sánchez's own last-five split mirrors that, a 0.64 ERA in the earlier outings against a 3.86 ERA in the most recent ones.
№ 04The away offense is averaging 8.0 runs per game over the last seven days and carries a .361 xwOBA against the fastballs Sánchez throws 43.8% of the time.
№ 05Umpire Louie Krupa's games have averaged 11.3 combined runs this season, and first-pitch temperature at Nationals Park is 86°F.
§ 01The analysis
The most telling number here is Cade Cavalli's recent form. Over his last five starts the arrow is pointing down, a 2.45 ERA in the earlier outings against a 5.87 ERA in the most recent ones. Cristopher Sánchez looks airtight at a 1.80 ERA, but the 2.96 xERA flags a 1.16-run gap that says regression is coming, and his last-five split tells the same story, a 0.64 ERA early in the stretch swelling to 3.86 in the most recent starts. The away offense is averaging 8.0 runs per game over the last seven days and brings a .361 xwOBA against fastballs across 1656 plate appearances into a matchup with a starter throwing 43.8% heaters. The home lineup has been heating up against left-handed pitching across 223 plate appearances. Washington's bullpen has burned 285 pitches over the last three days and leans on Gus Varland in leverage at a 5.16 ERA. Home-plate umpire Louie Krupa's games have averaged 11.3 combined runs, and it is 86°F at first pitch. The honest risk is Sánchez's 2.96 xERA across 105.0 innings paired with a 28.4% strikeout rate, with Jhoan Duran's 1.69 ERA waiting in the away bullpen.
§ 02The call
Two starters whose ERAs are running ahead of their xERAs, both with last-five splits sliding the wrong way, dropped into Nationals Park at 86°F with a Krupa zone whose games have still averaged 11.3 combined runs. The away bats are at 8.0 runs per game over the last week and punish fastballs at a .361 xwOBA clip, while the home bullpen has 285 pitches of recent work behind a 5.16 ERA leverage arm. Duran's 1.69 ERA is the cleanest argument the other way, but the run-scoring inputs line up with over 8.5 at -112.
Final resultWINOver 8.5 -112 · -112 Graded Jun 26, 2026