№ 01Paul Skenes leans on his fastball 62.8% of the time, and Matt McLain owns a .342 xwOBA against fastballs across 167 plate appearances this year.
№ 02Great American Ball Park plays as a 1.21 home run factor for right-handed hitters, giving McLain a live backdrop for extra-base contact.
№ 03The park also runs a 1.06 overall run environment, and first-pitch temperature of 87°F helps the ball travel through the Cincinnati air.
№ 04Pittsburgh's bullpen has already logged 313 pitches over the last three days, so any early Skenes exit puts a taxed relief group on the mound.
№ 05The honest risk is the slash line: McLain is at .191 across 272 at-bats with a 0.62 OPS and just 2 hits in his last 24.
§ 01The analysis
The angle on Matt McLain at +265 to clear 1.5 total bases starts with Paul Skenes' pitch mix. Skenes throws 62.8% fastballs, and that is the exact pitch McLain has handled best this season, posting a .342 xwOBA against heaters over 167 plate appearances. Put that collision in Great American Ball Park, where right-handed hitters are working with a 1.21 home run factor and a 1.06 overall run environment, and the extra-base math shifts. A 87°F first-pitch temperature helps the ball carry, and Pittsburgh's bullpen is stretched after throwing 313 pitches across the last three days. The counter is loud. McLain is hitting .191 on the year across 272 at-bats with a 0.62 OPS, and he's 2-for-24 over his last 10 games. Against right-handed pitching he's at .185 with a 0.59 OPS in 237 plate appearances, and his .187 xwOBA versus righty changeups is a hole. Skenes himself is a monster: 2.82 xERA over 120.7 innings, a 2.51 FIP, a 2.38 FIP across his last 27.7 innings, and a 30.3% strikeout rate. This is a price play on a fastball matchup in a launching pad.
§ 02The call
The read here is narrow and specific. McLain's slash line is ugly, but his fastball xwOBA of .342 lines up directly with the pitch Skenes throws nearly two-thirds of the time, and the venue rewards right-handed contact with a 1.21 home run factor and warm 87°F air. At +265, you're being paid for one extra-base swing or a pair of singles against a stretched Pittsburgh bullpen sitting on 313 pitches in three days. Skenes' 2.38 FIP over his last 27.7 innings is the risk you accept for the number.
Final resultLOSSMatt McLain OVER 1.5 Total Bases · +265 Graded Aug 1, 2026