№ 01Mike King's xERA of 4.48 sits well above his 3.46 ERA, suggesting his contact-quality results have outrun his peripherals.
№ 02Over his most recent 5 starts, King has run a 5.28 FIP across 29.3 innings, a step back from his season line.
№ 03King's composite form score is -32, with his swinging-strike and strikeout rates trending below his own baseline.
№ 04Working against the over, Masyn Winn has just 7 hits in 36 at-bats over his last 10 games and carries a .62 OPS on the season.
№ 05The away bullpen has thrown 221 pitches over the last three days, raising the chance Winn sees a tired reliever if King exits early.
§ 01The analysis
This is a price play built around what Mike King's peripherals say rather than what his surface line shows. King's ERA reads 3.46 across 80.7 innings, but his xERA of 4.48 and full-season 4.12 FIP both point higher, and his last 5 starts have produced a 5.28 FIP over 29.3 innings. His composite form score of -32 reflects swinging-strike and strikeout rates that have slipped below his own baseline, with the season K rate at 21.3%. The counter is real. Winn is hitting .232 with a .62 OPS, he has 7 hits in his last 36 at-bats, and his .105 slug against right-handed four-seamers over the past 30 days is a red flag given King throws 48.3% fastballs. Busch Stadium's 0.85 home run factor for right-handed hitters trims the extra-base ceiling, and Mason Miller waits in the back end with a 0.90 ERA. At +175, though, Winn only needs one extra-base hit or a multi-hit night against a pitcher whose underlying numbers have drifted the wrong way.
§ 02The call
Take Masyn Winn over 1.5 total bases at +175. The pricing already bakes in Winn's cold stretch and King's tidy ERA, which is what makes the number playable. King's xERA of 4.48, his 5.28 FIP across the last 5 starts, and his -32 form score all point to a pitcher who has been getting more than his process deserves. Add a tired Athletics bullpen sitting on 221 pitches over three days, and Winn has a realistic path to a double or a two-hit night at a plus price.
Final resultLOSSMasyn Winn OVER 1.5 Total Bases · +175 Graded Jun 17, 2026