№ 01Samad Taylor is hitting .357 on the season across 28 at-bats, with a 0.92 OPS.
№ 02Over his last 8 games, Taylor has 10 hits in 28 at-bats, so the recent line tracks the season number.
№ 03Taylor carries a 0.96 OPS in 23 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, and he draws a righty tonight in Andre Pallante.
№ 04Pallante's 3.88 ERA across 69.7 innings is propped up by a 4.25 FIP and an 18.8% strikeout rate, leaving plenty of contact in play.
№ 05The counter is Busch Stadium's 0.85 home run factor for right-handed hitters, which trims extra-base ceiling but still leaves doubles and multi-hit paths to clear 1.5.
§ 01The analysis
The case for Taylor over 1.5 total bases starts with the bat. He is hitting .357 across 28 at-bats with a 0.92 OPS, and the recent sample matches it - 10 hits in 28 at-bats over his last 8 games. The split fits the matchup too. Taylor owns a 0.96 OPS in 23 plate appearances against right-handers, and Andre Pallante throws from that side. Pallante's surface 3.88 ERA over 69.7 innings looks fine, but the peripherals are softer, with a 4.25 FIP and an 18.8% strikeout rate that puts the ball in play. The honest counter is the park. Busch Stadium carries a 0.85 home run factor for right-handed hitters, which suppresses the cheapest path to a second base via the long ball, and Pallante has held righties to a .201 average across 139 matchups. The run environment sits at a neutral 1.00 with a 9 mph crossing wind. The price reflects that home run factor and the matchup average, but Taylor's form and split give him real paths - a double, or two hits - to cash a number 2 total bases at this number.
§ 02The call
Taylor over 1.5 total bases at +180 is the side. The bat is producing right now, the season line and the recent 8-game stretch agree, and the platoon split lines up against Pallante from the right side. Pallante's FIP and strikeout rate suggest contact gets through even when the ERA looks tidy. Busch's home run factor for righties is a real drag and worth respecting, but a single extra-base hit or a multi-hit night clears the number, and the +180 price pays for that path. Take Samad Taylor over 1.5 total bases.
Final resultLOSSSamad Taylor OVER 1.5 Total Bases · +180 Graded Jun 17, 2026