№ 01Samad Taylor is hitting .343 on the season across 35 at-bats with a 0.87 OPS, giving this over a real on-base foundation.
№ 02Over his last 10 games Taylor has 12 hits in 35 at-bats, so the recent track matches the season line rather than fading off it.
№ 03Against right-handed pitching Taylor carries a 0.88 OPS in 31 plate appearances and is hitting .333, which is the side deGrom throws from.
№ 04Jacob deGrom's composite form score sits at -26 with swinging-strike and strikeout rates below his own baseline, softening the matchup at the top.
№ 05Globe Life Field plays to a 1.05 home run factor for right-handed hitters this season, which helps a single barrel turn into multiple bases.
§ 01The analysis
This bet leans on a hitter who has produced at a steady clip in the sample we have. Samad Taylor is hitting .343 across 35 at-bats with a 0.87 OPS, and the last 10 games line up with that, 12 hits in 35 at-bats. Against right-handed pitching specifically he runs a 0.88 OPS in 31 plate appearances and a .333 average, which is the handedness he gets tonight. The counter is obvious. Jacob deGrom has a 3.17 ERA over 76.7 innings, a 3.57 FIP, a 3.25 FIP across his most recent 5 starts, and his last two outings (1.50 ERA) are sharper than the older two (8.00) in that window. Globe Life Field is also playing to a 0.94 run environment. Those are real headwinds. The offsetting piece is deGrom's -26 composite form score, with swinging-strike and K rates under his own baseline even as the run prevention has held, and a 1.05 home run factor for right-handed hitters at this park that lets a single hit clear the number on its own.
§ 02The call
Taking Samad Taylor over 1.5 total bases at +190 is a price play on a hitter producing at .343 with a 0.87 OPS, including a 0.88 OPS in 31 plate appearances against right-handed pitching. DeGrom's surface ERA is the reason the number is plus money, but his -26 form score and softer swinging-strike and K rates this year leave room for contact, and Globe Life Field's 1.05 home run factor for right-handed hitters means one swing can clear the line. The form supports the over.
Final resultWINSamad Taylor OVER 1.5 Total Bases · +190 Graded Jun 20, 2026