№ 01Casey Schmitt is hitting .276 with a 0.82 OPS across 257 at-bats this season, giving him a solid baseline to clear 1.5 total bases.
№ 02Grant Holmes carries a 5.17 FIP and a 4.64 xERA that sits above his 4.05 surface ERA, suggesting his contact quality has been beating his peripherals.
№ 03Holmes is trending the wrong way inside his last 5 starts, with a 4.66 ERA in the most recent two versus 1.64 in the older two.
№ 04Wind is blowing out to center at 9 mph at Truist Park, and the venue sits at 1050 feet of elevation, helping the ball carry.
№ 05The risk on this card is Holmes's curveball, against which Schmitt carries a .212 xwOBA versus right-handers across 10 plate appearances.
§ 01The analysis
This bet leans on a hitter in steady season-long form drawing a starter whose peripherals are louder than his ERA. Schmitt is at .276 with a 0.82 OPS over 257 at-bats, and he sports a 0.78 OPS in 194 plate appearances against right-handed pitching. Holmes shows a 4.05 ERA, but his 5.17 FIP and 4.64 xERA both point to a pitcher living above his contact quality, and his last 5 starts produce a 5.16 FIP across 25.3 innings. He has also walked 29 batters in 66.7 innings for a 3.9 BB/9, and the recent two-start ERA of 4.66 versus 1.64 in the older two shows him worsening inside the window. The venue helps too — Truist Park sits at 1050 feet of elevation with wind blowing out to center at 9 mph. The counter is Holmes's curveball, where Schmitt owns just a .212 xwOBA against righties in a small 10-plate-appearance sample, and Iglesias waits in the bullpen with a 1.16 ERA across 23.3 innings if it gets that far.
§ 02The call
Take Casey Schmitt over 1.5 total bases at +150. The matchup is the anchor — Holmes's 5.17 FIP, 4.64 xERA, and 3.9 BB/9 all undercut his ERA, and his last two starts already show the regression starting. Schmitt's .276 average and 0.82 OPS give him a baseline that travels, and the 1050-foot elevation paired with a 9 mph wind out to center adds carry on contact. The curveball matchup is a real counter, but at plus money the supporting facts outweigh it. Bet the over.
Final resultWINCasey Schmitt OVER 1.5 Total Bases · +150 Graded Jun 17, 2026