№ 01Otto Lopez is hitting .336 on the season across 292 at-bats with a 0.84 OPS, giving this longshot price a solid contact profile to work with.
№ 02Over his last 10 games, Lopez has 14 hits in 40 at-bats, so the bat is producing right now heading into this matchup.
№ 03Landen Roupp throws 53.7% fastballs, and Lopez carries a .405 xwOBA against fastballs across 168 plate appearances this season.
№ 04Against right-handed four-seamers over the last 30 days, Lopez is slugging .593 across 29 plate appearances, with a .569 xwOBA on sinkers in 11 plate appearances.
№ 05Roupp has walked 32 batters across 74.3 innings for a 3.9 BB/9, and his composite form score sits at -36 with swinging-strike and K rates below his baseline.
§ 01The analysis
This is a longshot priced at +1100, and the case is built on Lopez's bat meeting a fastball-heavy starter who is not commanding the zone. Lopez is hitting .336 with a 0.84 OPS on the season and has 14 hits in his last 40 at-bats, so contact quality is trending in the right direction. Roupp throws 53.7% fastballs, and Lopez has punished that pitch type all year — a .405 xwOBA across 168 plate appearances against fastballs, a .593 slug against right-handed four-seamers over the last 30 days, and a .569 xwOBA against right-handed sinkers in that same window. Roupp's 3.9 BB/9 and -36 form score round out the matchup edge. The counters are real and need to be named. Lopez has only 5 home runs in 292 at-bats, and loanDepot park carries a 0.84 home run factor for right-handed hitters. Roupp's 2.88 FIP and 3.36 xERA also suggest his underlying stuff is better than the 4.24 ERA. At +1100, the bet does not need to be likely — it needs the pitch matchup to be live.
§ 02The call
Take Otto Lopez over 0.5 home runs at +1100. The anchor is the pitch-matchup data. Roupp leans on fastballs more than half the time, and Lopez has hit that pitch type hard all season and across the recent 30-day sample against right-handers. Layer in a .336 average, 14 hits in his last 40 at-bats, and a starter walking 3.9 per nine with a falling form score, and the longshot has a real path. The park and his 5 season home runs are the cost of the price.
Final resultLOSSOtto Lopez OVER 0.5 HR · +1100 Graded Jun 20, 2026