№ 01Max Meyer's xERA of 3.80 sits well above his 2.75 ERA, suggesting his contact-quality results have outrun his peripherals.
№ 02If Adames sees the back end, Pete Fairbanks carries a 6.43 ERA across 21.0 relief innings, so late-game bases are available.
№ 03Adames owns a .76 OPS over 233 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, giving him a usable platoon baseline at +174.
№ 04Working against the bet, Adames has just 4 hits in 40 at-bats over his last 10 games.
№ 05Also working against, Meyer has held right-handed batters to a .200 average across 155 matchups this season.
§ 01The analysis
This is a price-driven look at a hitter whose recent line is ugly but whose platoon profile is still workable. Adames is hitting .250 against right-handed pitching with a .76 OPS across 233 plate appearances, and loanDepot park runs a 1.02 run environment overall. The angle on the opposing starter is regression. Max Meyer's xERA of 3.80 sits meaningfully above his 2.75 ERA, and his FIP of 3.06 tells the same story that his surface results have been better than the underlying contact. If Adames does not get to Meyer, the Rays bullpen path runs through Pete Fairbanks and his 6.43 ERA across 21.0 relief innings. The counters are real and should not be hidden. Adames has 4 hits in 40 at-bats over his last 10 games, Meyer is striking out 26.8% of batters and holding righties to .200, and loanDepot's 0.84 home run factor for right-handed hitters cuts into the slug. Adames also carries a .233 xwOBA against breaking pitches and Meyer throws 54.5% breaking stuff. At +174, the form drag is already priced..
§ 02The call
The pick is Adames over 1.5 total bases at +174. The lean is built on Meyer's xERA-ERA gap and a soft late-inning path through Fairbanks at 6.43, paired with a .76 OPS platoon profile that has not disappeared. The 4-for-40 stretch and Meyer's .200 mark against righties are the reason the number pays this much. You are getting a price that already accounts for the cold form and the tough matchup, and only need two bases over nine half-innings in a park playing at a 1.02 run factor.
Final resultLOSSWilly Adames OVER 1.5 Total Bases · +174 Graded Jun 20, 2026