№ 01Cal Raleigh is hitting .164 this season with a .57 OPS, a season-long profile that gives little reason to expect a hit on any given night.
№ 02The slump is live: over his last 10 games, Raleigh has just 5 hits in 33 at-bats, matching the season shape.
№ 03Against right-handed pitching he owns a .63 OPS across 180 plate appearances and a .172 batting average, and Max Meyer throws right-handed.
№ 04Meyer leans on breaking stuff at 55.8% usage, and Raleigh has produced only a .242 xwOBA on breaking pitches across 66 plate appearances.
№ 05Narrow it further and Raleigh hits .174 against right-handed sliders across 26 plate appearances, the exact pitch shape Meyer keeps reaching for.
§ 01The analysis
The anchor here is a .164 batting average and a .57 OPS from Cal Raleigh across a 220 at-bat sample, and the recent form matches, with 5 hits in 33 at-bats over his last 10 games. The platoon side of the matchup is where the play tightens. Raleigh owns a .63 OPS in 180 plate appearances against right-handers and is hitting .172 in that same split, and Max Meyer is a righty who works off spin. Meyer throws breaking pitches 55.8% of the time, and Raleigh has managed only a .242 xwOBA on breaking stuff across 66 plate appearances. Zoom in on the slider from right-handers and it gets worse: a .174 batting average across 26 plate appearances. Meyer's peripherals back the profile too, with a 3.24 FIP, a 3.75 xERA across 103.0 innings, and a 26.2% strikeout rate. The counter is real. Raleigh has hit .500 against right-handed sinkers across 11 plate appearances and whiffs on just 12% of them, so if Meyer leans sinker-heavy, this ticket is where it dies.
§ 02The call
At +119 you are getting plus money on a hitter with a .164 average and a .57 OPS, cold in his last 10 games, walking into a right-hander whose primary weapon is the exact pitch shape Raleigh cannot square. Meyer's 3.24 FIP and 3.75 xERA across 103.0 innings hold the run environment down at loanDepot park's 1.02 mark. The loss path is Meyer feeding sinkers or a late Pete Fairbanks meltdown given his 7.27 ERA over 26.0 innings. Take the under on 0.5 hits and let the matchup work.
Final resultLOSSCal Raleigh UNDER 0.5 Hits · +119 Graded Jul 8, 2026