№ 01Janson Junk throws 36.0% fastballs, and Raley has punished that pitch for a .397 xwOBA across 140 plate appearances this season.
№ 02Junk has been fading over his last 5 starts, with the most recent outings clearly worse than the earlier ones in the stretch.
№ 03Left-handed hitters are batting .304 off Junk across 161 matchups this season, a split that lines up with Raley's handedness.
№ 04Across his most recent 5 starts, Junk has run a 4.91 FIP over 27.0 innings, so the peripherals back the recent slide.
№ 05If Raley doesn't get there against Junk, closer Pete Fairbanks and his 6.75 ERA across 28.0 relief innings offer another crack late.
§ 01The analysis
The case starts with pitch mix. Janson Junk throws 36.0% fastballs, and that is the pitch Luke Raley has hammered this year, running a .397 xwOBA against fastballs over 140 plate appearances. Junk hasn't been hiding it well lately either. His last 5 starts have trended clearly worse than the earlier ones in that stretch, and the peripherals confirm it with a 4.91 FIP across 27.0 innings. Lefties in particular have gotten to him, hitting .304 across 161 matchups. Raley fits that side of the platoon at .234 against right-handed pitching with a 0.79 OPS in 226 plate appearances. Even if Raley doesn't cash against Junk directly, the back end offers another look, with closer Pete Fairbanks sitting on a 6.75 ERA over 28.0 relief innings. The risk is real. Raley has managed just 5 hits in 30 at-bats over his last 10 games, and right-handed offspeed has eaten him up, at a .194 average and 47% whiff on sliders across 34 plate appearances and a .192 average with 51% whiff on changeups across 50.
§ 02The call
The read is a fastball-heavy starter trending the wrong way against a left-handed bat that does its damage on that exact pitch, with a shaky arm behind him if the game stretches late. Raley's 5-for-30 stretch over his last 10 games is a legitimate concern, and Junk's 4.00 xERA across 60.0 innings suggests his contact quality has been sharper than his runs allowed. But the fastball matchup and the .304 average lefties are posting against Junk carry this pick to a play at -149.
Final resultWINLuke Raley OVER 0.5 Hits · -149 Graded Jul 10, 2026