№ 01Richie Palacios has been swinging a hot bat lately, collecting 8 hits in 26 at-bats over his last 10 games.
№ 02Against right-handed cutters this season, Palacios is hitting .364 through 11 plate appearances and whiffing on only 8% of them.
№ 03His season line reads .245 across 192 at-bats with a .69 OPS, and .246 versus right-handed pitching in 192 plate appearances.
№ 04Palacios' team has taken 4 of the last 5 meetings with this opponent heading into the matchup at Tropicana Field.
№ 05The honest risk: Logan Gilbert carries a 3.29 FIP, a 27.1% strikeout rate, and a 1.74 FIP across 33.7 innings in his last 5 starts.
§ 01The analysis
Recent form is doing the heavy lifting for Palacios at +115. Over his last 10 games he has piled up 8 hits in 26 at-bats, and there is a specific pitch skill that travels well into this matchup: a .364 average versus right-handed cutters across 11 plate appearances, with an 8% whiff rate on the offering. The wider season profile is more modest.245 in 192 at-bats with a .69 OPS and .246 against right-handed pitching, so the read here is that the recent version shows up rather than the average one. His team has also gone 4-1 in the last 5 meetings with this opponent. The pushback lives on the mound. Logan Gilbert is running a 3.29 FIP with a 27.1% strikeout rate and a 3.62 xERA across 107.3 innings, and his last 5 starts have produced a 1.74 FIP across 33.7 innings. He has held left-handed hitters to a .170 average through 241 matchups, and his swinging-strike and K rates are ahead of his own baseline. Tropicana Field's 0.92 run environment trims scoring, and Palacios is hitting just .053 against right-handed curveballs across 20 plate appearances.
§ 02The call
The bet is a wager that hot-hand Palacios, the one with 8 hits in his last 26 at-bats and a .364 mark against right-handed cutters on an 8% whiff rate, is the one who steps in tonight. Gilbert's 3.29 FIP, 27.1% strikeout rate, and 1.74 FIP over his last 33.7 innings explain why the price is +115, and the .053 average versus right-handed curveballs across 20 plate appearances is a real vulnerability. Recent form against a sharp arm in a 0.92 run environment, priced fairly for a plus-money hit prop.
Final resultLOSSRichie Palacios OVER 0.5 Hits · +115 Graded Jul 11, 2026